In 2022, Sarah Stogner ran an insurgent Republican primary campaign for a seat on the Railroad Commission of Texas.
Despite its name, the commission is the powerful agency that regulates oil and gas in the state. Riding a wave of discontent over abandoned oil wells and groundwater contamination, Stogner surprised many when she forced incumbent Republican Commissioner Wayne Christian into a primary runoff.
She said it was only then that her campaign hired political consultants.
"They told me: 'OK, you need to be talking about the [border] wall. You need to be talking about abortion. You need be talking hot button topics," Stogner remembered. "I said, 'Absolutely not.'"
Instead, she kept hammering Christian on toxic air emissions, oilfield earthquakes and other issues related to oil and gas.
She lost the primary runoff by 30 percentage points.
"If I'd talked about abortion and the wall, I might have had a better shot," Stogner, who now serves as district attorney for Texas' 143rd Judicial District, speculated with no apparent regret.
She shared that story to explain the upset victory of Bo French, former chair of the Tarrant County GOP, over incumbent Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright. It was a primary that divided Republicans and the state's powerful oil and gas industry.
Unlike Stogner, French made his campaign almost exclusively about "hot button" culture war issues, ginning up outrage and attention with racist and xenophobic pronouncements.
He has called Native Americans "third world savages" and said they should be deported. He believes that the U.S. should "round up every muslim and send them home." He supports banning any ownership of Texas property by people from Muslim countries, and vows to fight a "Chinese Communist Party takeover" of the Texas oil and gas industry.
At the time, his comments earned him plenty of free media coverage, but also censure from fellow Republicans.
After a since-deleted social media post in which French asked his followers whether Jews or Muslims were a "bigger threat to America," Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick called for him to step down from his position at the Tarrant County GOP.
Patrick was also one of many influential voices in Texas Republican politics to endorse Wright, French's opponent in the primary.
Gov. Greg Abbott even warned voters that French "doesn't know anything about oil and gas" and would "wreck" oil production.
The Texas Oil and and Gas Association, the state's biggest oil industry lobbying group, supported Wright via its political action committee. He also received political donations from oil companies Exxon and Chevron.
But none of that support could deliver a primary victory.
Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University, said French benefited from the fact that few people usually bother to vote in primary runoffs and those that do often hold more extreme beliefs.
"Republican turnout was 7.4%, so it boils down to even a more deeply committed MAGA Republican turnout," Jillson said. "They don't care about Bo French saying things that are antisemitic and anti-Islam because they want a fighter."
"Whether that works in the general [election] is, I think, an open question," Jillson said.
French's Democratic opponent is hoping that it will not.
Vying for industry support
State Rep. Jon Rosenthal is the Democratic nominee. He entered the race expecting to run against Wright in the general election, and he had a plan for how to do that.
"I was going to hit him on self-dealing and having conflicts of interest," Rosenthal said recently.
French's upset victory has changed all that.
The oil and gas industry has a long and controversial history of helping pick winners in Railroad Commission elections, and Rosenthal hopes the new campaign landscape may help him.
"Normally, the lobby and big business will line up with an incumbent," he said. "It's become an open seat race and I can vie for that support."
To do that, Rosenthal said he has been talking with people in the oil and gas industries.
His message: Bo French is a "chaos candidate" who — echoing the words of Texas' Republican governor — "really does pose a threat to the health of our energy production in Texas."
"I think I'll be good for business," Rosenthal said. "For someone to run on an Islamophobic platform where they're going after companies just because part of their ownership is from the Middle East, that's bad for business."
Rosenthal, who expects there will be a lot of money pouring into both campaigns, said he is beginning those conversations with oil and gas stakeholders.
But, he concedes, he is starting from behind.
An industry divided
French has his own base of support in the world of oil and gas, much of it coming from independent oil firms instead of the international companies like Exxon.
In the GOP primary election, Texas oil magnates Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks put major money behind French through their right-wing political action committee, Texas Freedom Fund for the Advancement of Justice.
As reported by Inside Climate News, Dunn is said to have become upset with Commissioner Wright over his support for oversight of oil and gas waste pits.
Jillson, the SMU political analyst, said the independent oilmen's support for French shows how industry donors could be ready to boost him — despite his rhetoric — as long as they think he serves their interests.
"As long as he stays out of the way, and does not become a distraction and embarrassment, I think the industry will be happy," Jillson said.
A source at the Texas Oil and Gas Association's political action committee told KUT News that the group "will be looking at endorsements for the fall race later this year."
Texas Republican politicians like Abbott and Patrick are already shifting to French's side in the general. What voters will do is another question.
Stogner, who ran as a Republican four years ago, said she will vote for the Democrat this election.
"I personally know a lot of lifelong Republicans that are just not gonna cast a ballot," she said. "They are over the current Republican party."
KUT reached out to the Bo French campaign and the Texas Freedom Fund for the Advancement of Justice for this story. Neither replied by deadline.
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