A new poll from the nonpartisan Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) shows state Attorney General Ken Paxton leading Sen. John Cornyn by 8 percentage points among likely voters in the Republican Senate primary runoff on May 26.
The poll, released Friday and conducted by the polling firm Slingshot Strategies on behalf of TPOR, shows Paxton leading Cornyn by a margin of 48% to 40%, with 11% undecided.
Perhaps most significantly, the poll indicates that, even if President Donald Trump were to endorse Cornyn, it would not give him enough of a boost to close the gap with Paxton.
Trump, who had previously said he was planning to endorse a candidate in the contest, has so far stayed out of the race. But in the event of a Trump endorsement, the poll says, Paxton would still lead Cornyn by 45% to 42%. By contrast, a Trump endorsement of Paxton would widen the attorney general's lead over the incumbent U.S. senator to 55% to 35%.
"That is in large part because the MAGA coalition in Texas in this electorate is behind Paxton," said Evan Roth Smith, a founding partner at Slingshot Strategies. "Many undecided voters in this election are hoping to elect a MAGA candidate. That's one of the qualities that undecided voters tell us they're looking for. The president's endorsement, it would make a little difference, but it wouldn't make a world of difference, for John Cornyn. It would put this race to bed for Ken Paxton, in all likelihood."
Paxton appears to be picking up support from voters who backed U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston in the first round of voting. Some 45% of voters who previously cast ballots for Hunt say they now support Paxton, compared to 32% for Cornyn, with 24% of former Hunt voters still undecided.
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The poll shows Paxton leading Cornyn among men (50% to 40%), non-college-educated voters (53% to 36%), Latino voters (52% to 34%), and voters under 65. Cornyn holds a narrow lead among voters 65 and older (45% to 43%) and college-educated voters (46% to 42%).
One worrying finding for Paxton is that, in the event he is the Republican nominee, 24% of Cornyn voters report they would be likely to vote for the Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, in the November general election for U.S. Senate. That could be enough to lift Talarico over Paxton in a close contest as Democrats are seeking to win a statewide election in Texas for the first time in more than 30 years.
The poll found just 10% of Paxton voters say they would be likely to vote for Talarico if Cornyn was the Republican nominee.
"If 24% of Cornyn's voters in this runoff defect to the Democrat," Roth Smith said, "that's something in the realm of 10% of the Republican primary electorate that could cross party lines here because of the vitriolic tenor of this primary."
Still, neither Paxton's past scandals, nor his ongoing public divorce, nor questions about his electability appear to be putting a dent in his support among likely voters. Forty-three percent of likely primary voters say they consider Paxton more likely than Cornyn to defeat Talarico in the general election, compared to 38% who say Cornyn is more likely than Paxton to beat Talarico.
"If you add up all the voters who say, ‘I have integrity concerns with Ken Paxton, or I have personal life concerns with Ken Paxton, or I have concerns about his legal or criminal issues,' you basically get to just short of where John Cornyn is today," Roth Smith said. "If the well is dry for John Cornyn on winning votes off of Paxton's personal issues and winning votes off of the potential electability consequences of those personal issues, he has to turn somewhere else for votes, because we don't see much more runway for him there."
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