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The capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces triggered a contentious division in opinion in Mexico between official government condemnation and varied public reactions.
Some in Mexico expressed concern about what the intervention could signal closer to home. Those fears are tied to past statements by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened to act against Mexican cartels after labeling them foreign terrorist organizations.
Mexico's government has taken a firm stance. In a press release shared by President Claudia Sheinbaum on January 3, authorities strongly condemned the unilateral military actions carried out by the United States.
The statement said the operation violates Article 2 of the United Nations Charter, which prohibits the use or threat of force against the sovereignty of states.
Sheinbaum emphasized that dialogue and negotiation are the only legitimate paths forward, reiterating Mexico's long-standing position that Latin America and the Caribbean are a zone of peace. In her morning press conference, she said that "interventionism has never resulted in democracy."
David Mora, Senior Analyst for Mexico at the International Crisis Group, said the U.S. operation in Venezuela does not mean a similar intervention in Mexico is imminent. However, it does raise pressure on the Mexican president to deepen security cooperation with Washington.
"The huge difference here is that President Claudia Sheinbaum doesn't have any indictment in any U.S. court," Mora said. "For the United States, she is a legitimate president. She's not an indicted criminal."
Still, he said the events in Caracas increase expectations that Mexico will move further to align with the White House on security.
"What Sheinbaum and Mexico are going to do is they're going to double down on the strategy of cooperating," he said, pointing to existing frameworks such as the U.S.–Mexico Security Implementation Group and praise from Secretary of State Marco Rubio for Mexico's drug enforcement, prisoner transfers, seizures, and intelligence sharing. "Sheinbaum is going to double down on that, hoping that is enough to placate the possibility of military arrangements."
Mexico also urged the United Nations to act immediately to help de-escalate tensions and prevent broader regional instability. "Mexico maintains with conviction that America does not belong to a doctrine nor to a power. The American Continent belongs to the peoples of each of the countries that make it up," added Sheinbaum in her statement.
Mora said an outright U.S. intervention in Mexico remains unlikely, but he expects deeper military involvement as part of joint operations rather than unilateral action.
"I think it's not that likely, but this is certainly something that changes how things have unfolded so far," he said. He added that greater cooperation may include coordinated missions targeting criminals wanted by U.S. courts.
"We should expect greater U.S. military involvement in Mexico as kind of the next step in this security cooperation agreement," Mora said. "Why would they let the U.S. do that by itself — just unilaterally?"
He pointed to the recent arrest of Pedro Insunza Noriega, charged in the United States with narco-terrorism, as a sign of what may come.
"What we are going to see is more operations like this, in which Mexico aligns and delivers for the security agenda of the U.S.," he said, adding that the same logic now extends to trade.
Mexico's moves to align with U.S. priorities, including tariffs on Chinese products, reflect what Mora described as a broader effort to avoid unilateral action: "What's at stake here is Mexico's economy."
Clashes in Mexico City
The Venezuelan diaspora in Mexico celebrated Maduro's capture.
"Even though I had been hoping for this moment for a long time and dreaming of it, it still caught us off guard—but in a positive way, because it was what we needed," said Jose Parra, 58, who had to leave Venezuela 17 years ago.
Since 2014, nearly 8 million Venezuelans have fled the country, according to IOM - UN Migration, creating the largest migration crisis in Latin American history and one of the world's largest globally.
But in Mexico, the reaction to the U.S. military operation in Venezuela largely overshadowed the joy of celebrating Venezuelans.
Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, calls for demonstrations quickly spread across Mexico City.
Jose Parra said he found the protests unfortunate. However, the protests outside the U.S. Embassy were driven largely by Mexican activists and political groups affiliated with Morena, rather than by Venezuelan migrants.
"They show great ignorance about what is really happening in our country. People are only looking at it through an ideological lens; the left only defends 'its own'", added the automotive engineer.
Demonstrators condemned what they described as U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, framing it as part of a long history of foreign interference in Latin America.
Some Venezuelans were upset that Mexicans were expressing opinions about Maduro's capture. "There is no violation of human rights here; we have been asking for years that our rights be respected [for years]," said Parra.
The rallies also focused on broader themes of sovereignty and anti-imperialism. Protesters painted slogans on the embassy entrance and chanted briefly, calling for Maduro's release and rejecting U.S. military action in the region.
At the same time, a very different reaction was playing out nearby. Some Venezuelans in Mexico openly celebrated the intervention, welcoming what they saw as a decisive blow against Maduro's rule. Those opposing views quickly collided.
One Venezuelan man tried to explain that he opposed the demonstrators' actions against the embassy and began questioning the use of Venezuelan flags. In one tense exchange, he confronted Mexican protesters wearing Venezuelan caps, shouting, "No one here is Venezuelan, go home." The clash underscored the depth of disagreement not only between nationalities, but also over how political change in Venezuela should come. Verbal confrontations between Venezuelans supporting the U.S. action and Mexican protesters escalated into physical scuffles, forcing security forces to intervene and separate the groups.
After leaving the U.S. Embassy, the protest moved to the Venezuelan Embassy, where a Venezuelan woman also reacted to the chants by explaining what she had endured under Maduro's regime. "Two years ago, I had to leave because I was on a list that made me a target. I am a political exile now," she said.
Many Venezuelans, like Parra, remain cautious, despite the joy of seeing Maduro out: "We remain attentive to what may happen in the coming days to finish dismantling the criminal structure that exists."
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