Early voting for the Texas primary runoff elections is Monday through Friday, with Election Day scheduled for May 26. That's the day that will see the culmination of a contest that has lasted for more than a year — the Republican primary race for the U.S. Senate between incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
What remains an open question is whether the supporters of the candidate who loses the Republican primary runoff will swallow their displeasure and close ranks behind the winner. A recent analysis by a Republican polling firm, Ragnar Research Partners, suggests a large number of voters who participated in the past four Texas GOP primaries are sitting this one out.
Whomever the party chooses as its nominee will have less than five months before the start of early voting for the general election to make the case why he, and not Austin state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, should be the next U.S. senator from Texas.
A “difficult” primary
Attack ads in the Republican Senate contest began flooding the airwaves and social media well before the first round of primary voting in March. But they seem to have reached a fever pitch over the past few weeks.
Commercials for Cornyn have highlighted Paxton's alleged corruption in office — for which he was impeached but not convicted — as well as his marital infidelity and ongoing messy divorce from state Sen. Angela Paxton, R-McKinney, as evidence he is not worthy of the party’s nomination.
Commercials for Paxton have accused Cornyn of lackluster support for President Donald Trump, weakness on border security and immigration, and fostering ties with groups promoting "radical Islamic terror," despite Cornyn's promoting legislation to crack down on Muslim immigration.
Cindy Siegel, chair of the Harris County Republican Party, acknowledged Republicans will face a challenge unifying behind the eventual nominee given the tone of the campaign.
"It’s been a very difficult and, in some cases, probably somewhat bitter primary," Siegel said. "But I tell people that I believe strongly in the fact that any Republican is better than the Democrat alternative, especially in this day and age with a lot of the leftist progressive policies that they’re promoting."
Trump, who has weighed in on several congressional and state-level Republican primaries across Texas, has so far declined to endorse a candidate in the Senate race, despite previously teasing he planned to do so. As recently as last Friday, Trump told a press gaggle aboard Air Force One that he liked both Cornyn and Paxton, attacking Talarico as "weird."
A survey of likely Republican primary voters conducted last month by the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs suggested that a Trump endorsement of Paxton would propel the attorney general to a double-digit lead over Cornyn, while a Trump endorsement of Cornyn would still leave the incumbent senator behind Paxton.
The case for Paxton v. the case for Cornyn
James Bramble, a retired U.S. Army veteran in Cypress, said he's voting for Paxton. Among his reasons, Bramble cited Paxton's staunchly conservative policies as Texas attorney general, on issues ranging from defending the display of the Ten Commandments in public schools to opposing gender-affirming health care for minors.
"He is definitely not an establishment politician," Bramble said. "And I think that — if you take a look at his record in terms of defending restrictive abortion laws, voter ID requirements, and gun rights legislation — I think that he’s done a marvelous job."
Bramble — who has voted solidly Republican since 1980, when Ronald Reagan won the presidency — said he doesn't have strong feelings against Cornyn. But Bramble argued that Cornyn's time is past, and the four-term senator should step aside in favor of someone younger.
"I think that Ken Paxton brings with him a vigor, a proven track record, and somebody who is not willing to compromise with established politics or is willing to compromise Texas’ values for personal gain," Bramble said. "So, that’s why I think that Ken Paxton will do a great job as senator for the state of Texas."
Bramble said he would support Cornyn in the general election if Cornyn beats Paxton. However, he would expect Cornyn to learn something from the experience of running against Paxton, particularly in light of previous instances when Cornyn voted alongside Democrats to pass legislation.
"The fact is that, if this is that close of a race, that’s an opportunity for Senator Cornyn and to understand Texans are looking for a senator who [is] going to represent their values, Texas values," Bramble said. "And he better do it."
If that seems a harsh judgment, other likely primary voters are less forgiving. Leo Vasquez, a corporate financial consultant in Houston, said he’s voting for Cornyn.
"I’ve had a chance to talk with [Cornyn] when he was not on camera, when he was not on stage," Vasquez said. "And just through those types of conversations, I was able to see the real person, and he is exactly the type of leader that we need to be representing us on all these different levels."
Vasquez wouldn't say whether he would back Paxton over Talarico in November if Paxton is the Republican nominee.
"I know a lot of people who are just, their distaste for Ken Paxton is just extreme," Vasquez said. "If Paxton wins, I think the Republicans are going to be in a precarious position. I mean, the only thing benefiting us is that Talarico seems like just another wingnut candidate way off to the left."
Vasquez says he respects Cornyn's record as someone who is willing to work toward getting things done, rather than being what he calls "a flamethrower."
"Early in his Senate career when he was doing all the immigration reform or attempting to get some sort of comprehensive immigration reform — if both Republicans and Democrats had gotten onto that and fixed the system, there probably wouldn’t have been a need for [former President Joe] Biden to open the borders," Vasquez said. "And now there are people on the fringe pointing to him saying ... ‘Well, you know, that’s pro-amnesty,’ and it’s really leaving it alone is amnesty. You don’t do anything to fix it, I think, that’s worse than trying to fix it."
What happens in November?
Political consultant Bill Miller has advised both Democratic and Republican candidates. He said he thinks, with control of the Senate at stake, GOP voters will ultimately fall in line.
"The potential is there to lose the seat," Miller said. "But I do believe when push comes to shove, the fall rolls around, and all the maps are being shaken out, and people are fighting each other across the country. Republicans are going to say, ‘We’re going to elect our own guy. Whether I like him or not, I’m voting for him.'"
Mark Jones of Rice University's Baker Institute, who coauthored the April Hobby School survey, isn't so certain. He said the fact that both Cornyn and Paxton have such high unfavorable ratings suggests supporters of the losing Republican candidate may not back the party's nominee in the fall.
"While I think most Republicans are likely to hold their nose and vote for the rival if they are the GOP nominee in November, the fact that 43% of these Republican primary voters have an unfavorable opinion of Paxton and 49% have an unfavorable opinion of Cornyn, suggest that perhaps not all of them will do it — that some may not vote, cast a protest vote for libertarian Ted Brown, and in a few cases even choose James Talarico over the GOP nominee," Jones said.
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