In the days since Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a state Senate seat in historically red Tarrant County, Texas politicos have been deciphering what this upset victory means for Republicans come November.
State Senate District 9, which includes most of Fort Worth and the northern portion of Tarrant county, has been a GOP stronghold since the early 1990s. But in Saturday's special election for the seat, Rehmet beat Republican Leigh Wambsganss by double digits. The Air Force veteran and union leader's win came despite Wambsganss outspending the Democrat by $2 million.
A mere 15 months ago, President Donald Trump won the district by 17 percentage points. But Rehmet secured his Texas Senate victory with 57% of the vote, marking an almost 30 point party swing since the election in 2024.
"We proved that when leaders take communities seriously, listen to voters, and fight for working people, new outcomes become possible," Rehmet said in a statement after the victory.
"Tarrant County has really been a hotbed for Texas Republicans pushing further and further to the right," said Luke Warford, a political strategist and founder of Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund. "I think, honestly, Tarrant County residents have just gotten frustrated with that, and frustrated with the extremism.
"Beyond the county's borders, the special election's results should "be setting off some warning bells" for Republicans across Texas and beyond, according to Rice University political scientist Mark Jones.
"Moderate Republicans, during the past few election cycles, have tended to hold their nose and vote for the more conservative candidates — who perhaps they did not agree with, but sided with them over their Democratic rival," Jones told Houston Public Media.
"In this election, some of those more moderate Republicans voted Democratic or stayed home," said Jones.
This, coupled with President Trump's declining approval rating, is why Warford believes people are frustrated with the county's leadership and the economy.
Joshua Blank, the research director for the Texas Politics Project, says the dramatic blue-to-red flip in Texas Senate District 9 is reminiscent of what happened in 2018, the last midterm election during a Trump Presidency.
"When we look at the economic views at that time…they're much more negative now than they were in 2018," Blank told KERA. "When we looked at presidential job approval, it's much more negative now in the state than it was in 2018 — and that [midterm election] was a banner year for Democrats.
"While he said the election is sending "shockwaves" in some Republican circles, Blank sees it as "another piece of evidence that Democrats have wind at their sales."
Another takeaway, according to Blank: How Texas' Hispanic population voted on Saturday.
"What we've seen, as the economy has not improved in voters' eyes, is that that coalition has snapped back, essentially, to sort of pre-Trump levels, where, in general, Hispanics are leaning back towards Democratic Party," Blank said.
But there is time for that to change before voters head to the polls in November. While he agrees with numbers, Sergio Garcia-Rios of UT Austin's Center for the Study of Race and Democracy believes Democrats should still remain skeptical.
"I wouldn't necessarily expect this to translate immediately to the same. I think the direction is there," Garcia-Rios told The Texas Newsroom. "And now Democrats, if they really want the Latino vote, they still have to continue to work with them. Because they can't rely forever on Latinos bouncing back from discontent."
Andrew Scheneider of Houston Public Media and KERA's Ron Corning contributed to this report.
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