A new poll of likely Democratic voters shows Austin state Rep. Gina Hinojosa with a commanding lead over her rivals in the gubernatorial primary election in March. But most Democratic voters have yet to decide on a candidate, either in that primary or in the race for state attorney general.
The survey from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center shows Hinojosa supported by 41% of likely voters polled in the contest to see who will challenge Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking a fourth term. That compares to 42% who are unsure of their choice.
Businessman and unsuccessful 2018 gubernatorial candidate Andrew White of Houston registered at 6%. Former Houston-area congressman Chris Bell, an unsuccessful 2006 candidate, came in at 5%. Farmer and retired firefighter Bobby Cole polled at 3%. None of the other Democratic candidates posted more than 1%.
"I think if you’re Gina Hinojosa, you’re feeling quite good, and you see you have a clear pathway, at least at the present time, towards winning an absolute majority of the vote on March 3 and avoiding a May runoff," said Mark Jones of Rice University's Baker Institute, co-author of the report.
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By contrast, 57% of likely Democratic voters polled were undecided in the attorney general primary. Former Galveston mayor Joe Jaworski and Dallas state Sen. Nathan Johnson came in a statistical dead heat for second place, with 21% for Jaworski and 19% for Johnson. Attorney Tony Box registered at 3%.
Jones said the lack of name recognition is a problem for most of the Democrats running for statewide office, with the notable exception of Dallas-based U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who is running for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn.
"That includes many people who are elected officials such as state Sens. Nathan Johnson and Sarah Eckhart [of Austin], who are running for attorney general and controller [respectively], as well as state reps. Vikki Goodwin [of Austin], who’s running for lieutenant governor, and state representative Jon Rosenthal [of Houston], who’s running for railroad commissioner," Jones said. "These candidates have spent very little money — with the partial exception of Hinojosa — on digital ad campaigns, direct mail campaigns, radio campaigns or TV campaigns, and so voters just simply don’t know who they are."
No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas in more than 30 years. Harris County Republican Party chair Cindy Siegel said she doesn't expect the Democrats to break that losing streak, either with the governorship or the attorney generalship.
"I think Gov. Abbott will easily win," Siegel said. "I also think that, whoever our candidate is – we have, I believe, some exceptional candidates who bring a wealth of knowledge and experience and, I think, also name recognition — that ... the Republican party should also be able to win the attorney general race, too."
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