Affordability has dominated the U.S. Senate race in Texas, with both candidates promising to help voters’ pocketbooks. But there are limits on how much they actually can do to combat rising costs if elected.
While President Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot, the economic impact of his policies — including the ongoing conflict in Iran — is on many voters’ minds. Gas prices have gone up, and that has affected people’s views of the economy, said University of Michigan economist Joanne Hsu. She directs the university’s long-running Surveys of Consumers.
“Consumers are loud and clear that the number one factor on their minds when it comes to the economy is the cost of living,” Hsu said. “It's about purchasing power. It's about high prices.”
Zach Milton, a Democrat from Dallas, has a negative view of the economy. Milton said the war in Iran and the increase in tariffs under Trump are to blame.
“It’s horrible, and there’s a reason for that,” he said. “The policymakers are at fault.”
Leah Gibson, a Republican from Anna, also said prices are high. But Gibson said wages have also increased.
“Yes, I think things are high, but it seems like it’s always been that way,” she said. “There’s always going to be something that we’re not satisfied with as far as inflation or prices or whatever.”
People who attend political rallies for either Texas U.S. Senate candidate — Democrat James Talarico or Republican Ken Paxton — are likely to hear the candidates blame the political party they oppose for high prices and their pledges to fix the problem.
But whoever wins in November will become the junior senator from Texas — and just one among 100 others in the Senate and perhaps part of a narrow majority. And the victor may struggle to find the support necessary to pass any economic plan they propose.
The American Dream
Talarico has focused much of his campaign on affordability. When Republicans falsely accused him of being vegan, he pivoted the conversation to the rising cost of beef.
Talarico also hosted a food drive in Oak Cliff on the first day of the GOP midterm convention in Dallas.
“While we're here serving our neighbors, billionaire mega donors and their puppet politicians are clinking their champagne glasses,” he said. “They are toasting to their own corruption. They are celebrating corrupt tariffs, billionaire tax breaks and a new forever war that are all driving up costs.”
Talarico’s economic plan, titled the New American Dream, includes raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour and increasing taxes on billionaires and corporations.
The Texas state representative blamed billionaires for the affordability crisis when he announced his economic plan during a rally at an esports stadium in Arlington last month.
“The top 1% has put the American dream behind a paywall,” Talarico said.
Paxton has also campaigned on affordability. He promised to preserve the American Dream during his speech at the Republican midterm convention.
“Everywhere I go, I meet Texans working harder than ever, but still worried that they will never get ahead,” he said. “Those are the people that I'm fighting for. And I want every Texan to be able to buy a home, raise their family, and live a healthy life.”
The attorney general also unveiled his economic plan, Protecting the Texas Promise, in North Texas in August at a crowded Mexican restaurant in Allen. Paxton shared several proposals, including a $25,000 tax deduction for medical expenses and a $50,000 tax deduction for first-time home buyers.
Both Senate candidates talk about affordability and the American Dream. And both have proposed expanding child tax credit. Like Paxton, Talarico has also said he would lower health care and housing costs. His proposals include reinstating enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act and expanding the low-income housing tax credit.
Still, there are key differences. Talarico blames billionaires for the economic strife many voters are experiencing. Paxton says inflation and high prices started during President Joe Biden’s administration.
"There's no doubt that inflation started years ago and it's had an impact on families,” he told reporters at his Allen rally in August.
Negative outlook
Paxton, one of Trump’s strongest supporters, has to tread lightly when discussing the economy, said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. A recent poll from the Texas Politics Project found about 54% of voters disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy, including at least 1 out of every 5 Republicans surveyed.
"Ken Paxton has to thread the needle here between talking about affordability as a key issue, bringing up his own policy objectives, but also making sure to not anger the Trump administration or talk badly about them in terms of their role in making the economy what it is,” Rottinghaus said.
Paxton’s approach is to point to systemic issues, not the performance of the economy itself, said Joshua Blank, the research director of the Texas Politics Project. This approach allows him to toe the line without criticizing the president, Blank said.
“That actually ties into many of the culture war themes that Republicans are also leaning on with respect to DEI, with respect gender and sports, and the idea that essentially, the system is unfair, in a way that is not a criticism of the economy,” he said.
People across the political spectrum are dissatisfied with the economy and high prices. Nearly one in three voters cite inflation or the economy as the most important problem facing the state in the Texas Politics Project poll. The numbers are roughly the same among Democrats, Republicans and independents.
The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers found similar results, placing the consumer sentiment index for early September at 47.8. The survey also found that expectations of business conditions and personal finance have “plunged” due to fuel prices and tariffs.
Gibson, the Republican from Anna, said she would like for gas prices to be lower, but she expects things will improve.
"I think we just have to be patient,” she said. “I think it will eventually come back down."
The war in Iran and its impact on gas prices has negatively affected the value of the dollar, said Karen Dubrow, an independent from Plano who describes herself as a “violent moderate.”
"I think our economy is at a questionable place right now,” Dubrow said. “We were bad with COVID, and we started crawling out of it and things started looking up, and now I think it's plummeting."
Talarico, she said, is better equipped to address the higher cost of living. The Attorney General is too focused on social causes that distract from more important issues, like the economy, Dubrow said.
Steve Griffin also favored Talarico’s approach to the economy. Griffin volunteered at the Talarico campaign’s Love Thy Neighbor food drive ahead of the GOP midterm convention in Dallas.
“The fuel has gone up and down, so it's a significant factor for a lot of people,” he said. “The reason we're here today is because there are so many people in food insecure positions, and that hasn’t been addressed by the current administration at all, not even attempted.”
The president has promised an economic boom for months, pointing to gains in the stock market.
People with shares in the stock market, Hsu said, are more likely to have a more positive view of the economy. The top 90% of income earners own about 87% of corporate equities and mutual fund shares in the first quarter of 2026 according to data from the Federal Reserve.
"If you have large stock holdings, you are seeing a ton of wealth gains,” she said. “And if you're not, the number one factor is prices, and you don't have the buffer of a stock portfolio to buffer that pain."
Campaign promise
Paxton and Talarico may be overestimating the power and support they’ll have in the Senate to pass their economic plans, said Thomas Gray, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Dallas.
Building power and influence in the Senate, Gray said, takes time. Even more established members often struggle to pass legislation in the closely divided Senate.
But a close split of power between the political parties in the Senate could benefit newer Senators, said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.
“If the Senate is a one or two vote majority either way, every Senator has bargaining power at that point,” Jillson said.
Discussing economic policy is also a campaign tactic. Candidates, Gray said, propose economic policy to show where they stand on a key issue for voters.
"It's what we do in politics,” he said. “We talk about what we would do in this imaginary world where we were dictator.”
The reality, Gray said, is less glamourous.
“For most freshmen, especially a freshman in the minority party in the Senate, you're looking at zero or one thing, and if you look at their list, they'll have things like naming a post office or something,” he said. “It's just not something where you walk in on your first day and suddenly you say, you know what, we're going to spend $50 billion on new tax credits.”
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