Ken Paxton got his place on the national stage this week and an opportunity to convince voters he’s the right choice to represent Texas in the U.S. Senate — but he faced roadblocks at every turn.
Donald Trump criticized how Paxton looks, dresses and sounds. He got less than 10 minutes to make his pitch hours before the president spoke. And Gov. Greg Abbott, Lieutenant Gov. Dan Patrick and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz didn’t mention him once in their speeches at the convention.
The Texas attorney general endured all that in the hopes of building the coalition he needs to get to the U.S. Senate.
But experts warn it may not be enough.
Supporting role
Paxton wasn’t featured prominently at the midterm convention. His roughly seven-minute speech covered his campaign’s key talking points, including his economic plan, Protecting the Texas Promise.
“Everywhere I go, I meet Texans working harder than ever that still worry that they’ll never get ahead," Paxton said. "Those are the people that I’m fighting for.”
Paxton's economic policy proposals include tax deductions for medical expenses, healthy living and home purchases.
He also criticized his Democratic opponent James Talarico's religious faith.
"He calls himself a Christian who hates Christianity, said God is nonbinary," Paxton said. "I must have missed that verse in the Bible."
Talarico has since walked back his comments in recent interviews.
The Attorney General’s speech at the midterm convention was hours before Trump spoke, shortly after Rep. Brandon Gill from Texas Congressional District 26, who spoke for about 11 minutes. Dallas mayor Eric Johnson gave his speech on Thursday less than an hour before the president.
Trump made multiple disparaging remarks about Paxton’s fashion sense on Wednesday. He repeated the same comments on Thursday during his remarks at the Medal of Honor Museum in Arlington.
“I said I'm not sure if I like your look,” Trump said. “I'm sure if like the way you dress. I don't like the way that you talk.”
Trump’s digs about Paxton may signal his thoughts on the Texas Senate race, said Rebecca Deen, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington.
“The president doesn't like to back someone who might lose,” Deen said. “So I think that in some ways, it is a small indicator of at least what the president thinks are the stakes for Mr. Paxton.”
Trump pulled his support for U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks, a staunch pro-Trump Republican, in the 2022 GOP primary race for Alabama governor a day after Brooks placed a distance third in a poll. Trump cited a disagreement over the 2020 election as the reason for rescinding his endorsement. Both believe the election was stolen despite contradictory evidence, but Brooks had said it was time to move forward.
Trump’s remarks about Paxton at the midterm convention in Dallas weren’t all criticisms. He praised Paxton’s tenure as Attorney General. Paxton’s reputation has been a buffer for his lack of campaign finesse, said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.
“They discounted the sort of political skills that Paxton does not have in favor of his willingness to fight for the MAGA causes,” Jillson said.
The president has also contributed to Paxton’s campaign war chest. Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC recently donated $10 million to Paxton’s campaign, including $5 million for negative advertisements targeting Talarico according to a Saturday Federal Election Commission filing.
Paxton will likely need at least another $50 million to keep the Senate seat red, Jillson said.
The location of the midterm convention, a large Texas media market, is another boost for Paxton, Deen said. But like Trump, the convention organizers may be trying to hedge their bets to insulate other candidates who need a boost, she said.
“They want to help him, but he's not doing so well,” she said. “And if he is featured prominently, it might reduce the impact of what they're trying to achieve.”
Electoral boost
The Texas Senate race is competitive. Talarico is leading or tied with Paxton in several polls, including an Aug. 24 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll that shows Talarico leading Paxton 42% to 39%.
The unprecedented midterm convention, which the GOP has billed a Trumpapalooza, suggests Republicans are concerned about the polls, Jillson said.
“They can read public opinion in regard to President Trump, in regard the war in Iran, in regard to various of their candidates, like Ken Paxton here in Texas, and even Gov. Abbott is running only four or five points ahead of his Democrat opponent who has far less money and name recognition than he does,” he said.
Fewer voters hit the polls during midterm elections — and the president’s party historically doesn’t do well. Trump urged attendees at the convention to vote as if he were on the ballot.
People who attend a Republican midterm convention don’t need to be convinced to vote in November for the GOP candidates on the ballot, said Joshua Blank, the research director at the Texas Politics Project at the University Texas at Austin. It’s unlikely, Blank said, the voters who are less inclined to hit the polls for the midterms are paying attention to politics the week after Labor Day weekend and the beginning of the NFL season.
“The idea that Trump is somehow going to mobilize these voters who are likely not paying any attention to an unprecedented midterm political convention, it's just far-fetched,” he said.
Still, Paxton may be able to gain some momentum from the convention, said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston.
“The biggest flaw he has as a candidate is lack of Republican enthusiasm,” Rottinghaus said. “This is a moment for him to pull that together and to be able to get a springboard towards turnout in November.”
Got a tip? Email Caroline Love at clove@kera.org
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