A new poll from Texas Southern University shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for the U.S. Senate by 2 percentage points, just within the margin of error. This marks the third consecutive poll that shows Talarico leading Paxton in his bid to become the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Texas in more than three decades.
The latest poll released Tuesday shows Talarico with sizable leads among women as well as Latino voters and Black voters. There have been questions about his ability to win votes from Black Texans, who figure to be a key demographic in November’s election.
Among all likely voters, the poll by TSU's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center shows Talarico with support from 47% compared to Paxton's 45%, with 2% favoring Libertarian candidate Ted Brown and 6% undecided. Mark Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute who coauthored the survey, said Paxton is underperforming among Republicans with support from 85%, while Talarico is overperforming among Democrats at 97%.
"You put those two factors together, combined with Donald Trump being under water among Texas voters, and that could potentially create the perfect storm that could allow Democrats to do something they haven’t done since 1994, and that is win a statewide election in Texas," Jones said.
The survey finds that 5% of likely Republican voters say they plan to vote for Talarico, while 1% of likely Democratic voters say they plan to vote for Paxton.
The study did not investigate the motivations of those potential crossover voters. However, Paxton captured the Republican nomination in a particularly bitter primary runoff against incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn. An analysis conducted by a Republican polling firm at the height of the GOP Senate contest suggested that at least some Cornyn voters would not support Paxton if he were the eventual nominee.
In addition, the poll shows independent voters breaking strongly for the Democrat, with 63% saying they'll back Talarico compared to 23% for Paxton, 3% for Brown and 11% unsure.
"I think one place we’ll see the Talarico campaign really try to pull out all the stops is in getting younger voters, those 18 to 34, to turn out in larger numbers than normal," Jones said, "because the more voters who are under 35 who cast the ballot, the better things will be for Texas Democrats from James Talarico in the U.S. Senate race, all the way down to Jon Rosenthal in the Railroad Commissioner race.
Talarico leads Paxton among voters 34 and under by 30 percentage points, according to the poll, but Jones said most standard models show those voters typically comprising only about one-fifth of the voting public.
The poll also shows Talarico leading Paxton among women 55% to 38%, while Paxton leads Talarico among men 53% to 39%. It shows Paxton leading Talarico among white voters 53% to 39%, but Talarico leads Paxton among Latino voters 57% to 38% and among Black voters by 79% to 12%.
The latest TSU Senate survey follows two other polls showing Talarico leading Paxton, one conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research, the other by Fox News.
In addition to its Senate survey, TSU's Barbara Jordan Center also conducted a parallel poll of 1,200 likely Black voters across Texas. It found that overwhelming majorities of respondents were convinced that non-Black voters had chosen Talarico over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic Senate primary because Crockett is Black, and that the Texas Democratic Party is taking Black voters for granted.
Talarico last month pledged to spend $25 million from his campaign to win over and mobilize Black voters.
"In spite of the grievances that many Texas Black voters have with the Democratic Party in Texas," Jones said, "only 7% said that they are less likely to vote in the November election as a result of Jasmine Crockett’s loss in the March primary. And in fact, one-third of black Texas voters say that they’re actually more likely to turn out to vote now. They’re very motivated."
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