After spending much of the spring and summer trailing state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the polls, Senator John Cornyn has pulled even with his chief rival for the 2026 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate from Texas. Houston-area Congressman Wesley Hunt, who formally entered the contest earlier this week, is in third place.
The latest survey of likely GOP primary voters by the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs and Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs shows Paxton polling 34% in a three-way race, with Cornyn polling 33%, Hunt 22%, and 11% of respondents unsure.
Mark Jones, a Rice University political scientist and co-author of the survey, said the finding reflects net gains by Cornyn among potential GOP primary voters, rather than Hunt taking support away from Paxton.
"In the two-way race between Cornyn and Paxton, Cornyn has a 1 percentage-point lead," Jones said. "Whereas, in a three-way race involving Hunt, Paxton has a 1 percentage lead over Cornyn, which statistically is the same thing."
The survey found a distinct gender gap with Cornyn leading Paxton among women by 9% in a three-way race involving Hunt and by 14% in a two-way race with Paxton alone. Among men, Paxton leads Cornyn by 8% in a three-way race involving Hunt and by 9% in a head-to-head matchup.
"One silver lining for Hunt is that, while both Paxton and Cornyn are very well-known quantities among Republican primary voters, with nine out of 10 Republican voters knowing enough about them to have an opinion, only 69% know enough about Hunt to have an opinion," Jones said. "So, there’s time for Hunt to build a positive name recognition among that 31%. But of course, Paxton and Cornyn may spend some time trying to build negative evaluations among that same one-third."
Looking at the potential Democratic primary field, the survey found Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett leading Austin state Senator James Talarico, former El Paso Congressman and unsuccessful 2018 U.S. Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke, and former Dallas Congressman and unsuccessful 2024 U.S. Senate candidate Colin Allred, in that order. Neither Crockett nor O'Rourke have declared that they are candidates.
"While certainly we have to wait and see what Congresswoman Crockett says, I think she’s at least contemplating the Senate bid," Jones said. "Whether she decides to pull the trigger or not remains to be seen, but what our data show is that if Congresswoman Crockett does decide to throw her hat in the ring, she would be initially at least the favorite to win the contest."
Among the two leading declared Democratic candidates, the survey found likely Democratic primary voters preferred Allred over Talarico by 46% to 42%, with 12% unsure. The survey did not show any results for another declared candidate, former NASA astronaut Terry Virts.
The survey found Allred leads Talarico in a two-way race by 38 percentage points among Black voters, while Talarico leads Allred by 7% among white voters and by 4% among Latino voters.
"I think what we can say right now is that in an Allred-Talarico contest, it’s a dead heat, with Allred right now having a slight advantage," Jones said. "But with Talarico’s fundraising success and the fact that about one in four Democratic primary voters don’t know much about him, he has considerably more room to grow than does Congressman Allred."
The poll also examined likely GOP primary voters' preferences in the race to succeed Paxton as Texas attorney general. It found Central Texas Congressman Chip Roy dominating the field at 40%, with Houston state Senator Joan Huffman trailing at 12%, followed by former U.S. Assistant Attorney General Aaron Reitz at 8%, and Galveston state Senator Mayes Middleton at 3%. Some 37% of respondents said they were unsure who they would support.
"The one thing that could shake up this race —that, right now, looks like it’s a runaway victory for Chip Roy, where he potentially could win in March and avoid a May runoff —would be [President] Donald Trump weighing in and endorsing one of his rivals," Jones said.
Jones said there were two possible reasons Trump might involve himself in the primary fight for Texas attorney general. The first would be if he were asked to do so by Paxton or some other leading Texas Republican whom he considers an ally.
"The other would be that his dislike for Chip Roy, who’s been a real thorn in his side in DC, would result in him wanting to weigh in to keep Chip Roy from winning the very powerful and important position of Texas attorney general — who by virtue of being the Texas AG, becomes one of the most powerful attorney generals in the entire country and someone who can have a pretty dramatic impact on the legal system and the judicial system in the United States," Jones said.
Finally, the survey suggested that a significant proportion of Texans who voted for Trump for president in 2024 are experiencing buyer's remorse. The Hobby School conducted a survey after that election and found that 56% percent of respondents cast their votes for Donald Trump compared to 43% for then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
"We then asked those same individuals here in September of 2025, ‘If you could vote again, who would you vote for?'" Jones said. "And only 49% said they would still vote for Trump. So, Trump lost 7% Percent of his support in terms of a percentage point drop just in about 11 months."
The poll found that the most significant sub-groups that shifted their support away from Trump were political independents (20 percentage points down), Gen-Z (16 percentage points down), and Latinos (12 points down).
"What these data suggest is that Republican congressional candidates probably should not be counting on the outsized support among Latinos that Donald Trump received back in 2024," Jones said. "Even here in Houston, District 9, which is drawn to be a pretty strong Republican district, could potentially become more vulnerable if Latinos begin to vote much more strongly Democratic, like they did, say, in 2018 or 2016.
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