Hardline conservatives will get another chance to take over a North Texas U.S. House seat after a January special election that highlighted a party divide in the state GOP.
Jill Dutton defeated fellow Republican Brent Money to complete the term of former House District 2 Rep. Bryan Slaton, who was expelled in May after an internal investigation found he engaged in inappropriate sexual conduct with a 19-year-old aide.
Now, the more ideologically driven March 5 primary could attract a Republican base that’s further to the right, and political endorsements in the weeks leading up to the primaries have given a taste of who party leaders see as the more conservative choice.
“This election has been a proxy war in the GOP that pits these competing factions against each other,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor.
In the race for HD 2, Money has the backing of Gov. Greg Abbott, Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. Meanwhile, Dutton is backed by more moderate Republicans like Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan and former Gov. Rick Perry.
But Republican factions will not solely determine the outcome — Texas’ open primaries allow for anyone to vote in a party’s primary, no matter their party affiliation.
While an establishment Republican may not have total party support, Democratic and Independent voters could favor them in a primary.
Following the special election, Paxton shared an article by the DC Enquirer which alleged more than 10% of early voters previously voted in a Democratic primary, and said Republican primary voters would get the results "right" in March.
Nearly 10% of early vote was Democrats who voted to steal this election for Jill Dutton. Republican primary voters will get this right in March and elect @brentmoney to HD 2. #txlege https://t.co/H79rRKcKRP
— Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) February 1, 2024
Meanwhile, Austin-based political consultant Derek Ryan with Ryan Data & Research posted his own breakdown of early voter demographics which showed 267 voters, or 4%, out of more than 6,000 early voters cast ballots in the most recent Democratic primary. Dutton won by 111 total votes.
It's not clear how accurate either breakdown is. Voting history data is sent to the Secretary of State’s office 30 days after the election and the office could not provide KERA with a breakdown.
A spokesperson for the Secretary of State said once the voting history data is received, it undergoes data analysis. However, the time it takes to receive and process the data does not change the overall results.
Money released a statement saying he was excited about the prospect of an instant rematch in the primary election and restated the idea that Democrats voted for Dutton in the special election.
Dutton did not respond to requests for comment.
As of the last filing deadline, Dutton raised more than $80,000 in monetary political contributions while Money had just over $10,000, according to campaign finance reports.
While it's not clear how many Democrats voted in the special election, what is clear is that anyone in the district had the right to do so — whether Democrat or Republican, as Texas Democratic Party Executive Director Monique Alcala pointed out in a statement.
“Regardless of party affiliation, eligible Texas voters are free to vote for whichever candidate they believe will best represent their communities – and it’s clear that the voters of HD 2 did not believe in Brent Money,” she said in the statement.
Calls for closed primaries in Texas
Although the special election was not party affiliated, Dutton’s win against Money sparked calls for closed primaries by GOP members including Texas Rep. Nate Schatzline and Texas Rep. Brian Harrison. In a post on X, Harrison claimed Money was a “real” conservative more popular among Republicans.
Open primaries in the state date back to when Texas was predominantly led by Democrats. The party fought to keep the system open in the 1940s and 1950s as the Texas Democrats split between conservative and moderate, Rottinghaus said.
“If you have an open primary, it might mean that you see a broader electorate participating in choosing who the nominees are, and they're probably going to choose somebody who's less ideologically extreme,” Rottinghaus said.
A drawback to open primaries is that it dilutes a party’s ability to choose their nominee, he said. Typically, party leaders tend to support the concept of a closed primary.
A closed primary means voters register with a political party, something Texas does not require. However, if they vote in one party’s primary, they can only vote in that party’s runoff.
Voters in the GOP primary this year will also be able to voice their opinion on whether primaries should be closed. A nonbinding ballot proposition asks voters if they agree that the "Republican Party of Texas should restrict voting in the Republican Primary to only registered Republicans."
In a statement issued after the HD 2 special election, Texas GOP Chairman Matt Rinaldi said Republican voters have the right to pick the candidate who will represent them.
“Democrat interference in Republican elections defeats the purpose of political parties,” he said.
Cal Jillson, a Southern Methodist University political science professor, said he does not expect the closed primary debate to lead anywhere.
“It's not in the Republican Party's interest that it should go anywhere,” he said. “They need to try to preserve a broader base of appeal.”
Concerns over closed primaries gained momentum after former President Donald Trump falsely claimed Democrats and Independent voters could vote in the New Hampshire Republican primary against him.
In New Hampshire, undeclared voters can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary, but registered Democrats and Republicans can only vote in their party’s primary. Independents do not count as “undeclared” voters.
But while Republicans openly questioned whether "RINOs" — or, "Republicans in name only" — and Democrats were taking over GOP primaries following New Hampshire, Jillson said the concerns are baseless.
“Otherwise, you wouldn't have Abbott and Paxton and [U.S. Rep.] Chip Roy and those guys getting elected, who are, solid, conservatives and Republicans,” he said. “So, I think this is a discussion that has blown up. It should and probably will go away.”
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