Speculating about the weather is practically a sport in North Texas this time of year, but as spring storms begin to take shape across the central U.S., meteorologists say there are clearer signals about what’s ahead — even if the details remain unpredictable.
Jesse Hawila, a meteorologist with WFAA, says this year’s severe weather season is shaping up to be fairly typical overall, with some notable early activity in parts of the country.
“The Midwest has had an above-average amount of severe weather this season,” he said.
That early activity has been concentrated farther north than usual, in states like Michigan and Illinois, where several tornado outbreaks have already been reported.
Still, Hawila cautions against reading too much into that pattern.
“The weather is very chaotic. It is a fluid medium,” he said. “There’s not a huge correlation between one region’s activity and what another region will see later in the season.”
For North Texas, conditions have been relatively quiet so far but that could change soon.
Longer-range models suggest a shift toward a more active pattern as we head into May, traditionally the peak of severe weather season across the Southern Plains.
“When you lean in favor of wetter-than-normal conditions in this part of the country, you do have to perk up a little bit,” he said. “There’s going to be a chance for severe weather increasing.”
Hawila says that outlook aligns with broader seasonal signals tied to global weather patterns.
Beyond spring, the forecast turns toward heat.
“All summers in North Texas are hot… but this one may be particularly hot,” Hawila said. “We average 20 triple-digit days in a summer. I do suspect we’ll have above-normal triple-digit days this year.”
Even so, predicting exactly how the season unfolds remains a challenge, a reality Hawila says people should keep in mind when comparing forecasts to long-range outlooks like the Farmer’s Almanac.
For now, the message is familiar: stay weather-aware as storm chances increase in the coming weeks, and be prepared for a summer that could arrive with intensity.
Ron Corning is the host of KERA's forthcoming talk show, NTX Now. Got a tip? Email Ron at rcorning@kera.org.
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