Texas is emerging from a winter that stood out for its heat and lack of rain, ranking as the warmest and driest on record for several parts of the state. While the season included brief arctic outbreaks, it was dominated by temperatures that frequently climbed 10 degrees above normal.
Statewide, this season was among the top two warmest ever recorded across the United States.
According to the National Weather Service in Fort Worth, the winter of December 2025 through February 2026 was also the 11th driest and third warmest on record for the Dallas-Fort Worth area, with climate records dating back to 1898.
While the season was defined by heat, it was also marked by intense volatility.
Dr. Yunyao Li, an assistant professor of earth and environmental sciences at UT Arlington, said the winter saw "sharper swings between mild conditions and extreme events."
Temperatures were consistently above average in December and February, while January provided a brief, intense dip in overnight lows.
Miles Langfeld, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Fort Worth, said a strong La Niña season was the primary atmospheric factor driving the heat.
A La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, off the coast of South America, are cooler.
"Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific often shift the jet stream northward, allowing for more mild conditions over Texas," Langfeld said.
Despite the general warmth, Langfeld said these patterns do not offer total immunity from the cold.
Even during La Niña years, the state can see significant arctic outbreaks, such as the winter storm in January, or the historic February 2021 freeze.
The current La Niña event began in mid-2024 and has shaped back-to-back warm, dry winters. While these cycles are natural, their frequency may be shifting.
"If La Niña events are indeed becoming more common, this would imply that Texas may experience warm and dry winter conditions more often than in the past," Li said.
The lack of moisture has also created a hurdle for water management. If a "critical rainfall" occurs, the parched soil will act as a barrier to the state's water supply, said Zong-Liang Yang, a professor at the University of Texas at Austin.
The long-term data for North Texas shows a clear upward trend that goes beyond seasonal cycles. Nine of the top 20 warmest winters on record in North Texas have occurred within the last 20 years, according to data from the NWS.
Winter months in Texas are actually warming faster than other months overall, rising by more than 1.2 degrees Celsius over the past century.
"We have a changing warming climate, but also, we have the atmospheric events that also play a role causing year-to-year variability," Yang said.
Advocates say these climate shifts are already hitting home, particularly in urban centers where the "heat island" effect can worsen air quality.
Caleb Roberts, with the Dallas-based climate advocacy group Downwinders at Risk, said heat acts as a catalyst for industrial pollution.
"We know that pollution gets worse the hotter it gets," Roberts said. "So when I hear that this winter is the warmest and the driest, that makes me very concerned about what the summer is going to be".
For those in neighborhoods located near major industrial sites or highways, rising temperatures can be debilitating for those with pre-existing health conditions. Roberts said the health impacts are not a "boogeyman in the future," but are happening right now in certain communities.
"We're going to see more people in their homes,” Roberts said. “We're going to see people less likely to go places because of their health concerns."
As the climate continues to shift, Roberts worries the gap between those who can adapt and those who cannot will widen.
"It just seems like we're setting ourselves up to have an environmental crisis where all the burden is on people who are already struggling," Roberts said.
The dry conditions also raise the risk for immediate spring hazards as the state moves into March and April.
Parched soil and stressed vegetation "significantly increase wildfire risk" and raise the likelihood of dust storms when combined with strong winds, Li said.
Those effects are already visible in western North Texas and the Texas Panhandle, where wildfire activity is expected to increase after several weeks without rain.
As Texas continues to grow, the stakes for climate planning and infrastructure are rising.
According to the North Central Texas Council of Governments, the region alone added more than 234,000 people in the past year, making it one of the fastest-growing areas in the country.
"As the population continues to expand, more people, infrastructure, and resources will be exposed to climate-related hazards such as drought, extreme heat, wildfire, and dust storms," Li said.
While the current La Niña is expected to transition toward a neutral phase or even an El Niño, which typically brings cooler, wetter weather to Texas, the long-term trajectory for the state remains warmer.
"This temporary shift should not lead to complacency," Li said. "Instead, it underscores the importance of strengthening climate resilience to prepare for future extremes."
Emmanuel Rivas Valenzuela is KERA's breaking news reporter. Got a tip? Email Emmanuel at erivas@kera.org.
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