Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett are leading their respective Senate primary races, according to new public polling released Monday, just over a week before the start of early voting on Feb. 17.
In a statewide sample of 550 likely Republican primary voters conducted between Jan. 20 and Jan. 31, Paxton led incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn by 7 percentage points. Across the aisle, a similar poll of 550 likely Democratic primary voters shows Crockett running ahead of state Rep. James Talarico by 8 percentage points. The survey findings are a change from recent polls that found both races to be neck-and-neck.
In both primaries, 12% of respondents said that they were still undecided.
And in hypothetical matchups for the general election, there is “little difference” between the expected performance of a Republican and a Democrat regardless of the candidates, according to the survey conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. While it indicates that Paxton and Cornyn could beat Crockett by 2 percentage points, Paxton could do slightly better than Cornyn if facing Talarico. Between 7% and 8% of likely voters said they were still unsure on how to vote in these cases.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.18 percentage points.
For Republicans, the poll shows Paxton pulling ahead with 38% of the likely primary voters who were surveyed compared to Cornyn’s 31%, after recent polling showed them in a tight competition. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston was in a distant third with 17%.
Paxton would also have a big advantage over both his opponents if the primary race goes to a run-off, according to the survey. In addition, it shows Paxton ahead of Cornyn on all key demographic groups for the Republican primary — except for Latino voters, where the incumbent led by 7 percentage points.
Meanwhile, the survey shows 47% of likely Democratic primary voters intend to support Crockett compared to 39% for Talarico — a marked difference from a recent poll that indicates that they were in dead heat.
The Dallas congresswoman also led Talarico in most key demographic groups for the primary, except for white voters and those who have an advanced degree, according to the Monday figures. The survey indicates that 46% of likely Latino primary voters support Crockett and 37% back Talarico, while 15% are unsure. Previous polls have shown Talarico, who recently garnered an endorsement from the state’s largest Hispanic Democratic organization, leading among Latino voters instead.
Overall, 92% of respondents said at the time that they knew enough about Crockett to have an opinion about her compared to 85% for the Austin state lawmaker.
Beyond the Senate primaries, the survey also polled 1,502 likely general election voters and found an even split between those who approve and disapprove of President Donald Trump’s performance — 49% to 50% respectively. This has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points.
In particular, 50% percent or more of respondents said they disapprove of the president’s decisions of foreign policy, the economy, international trade and cost of living. Meanwhile, 51% said they approve of his handling of immigration and border security — compared to 47% who disapprove.
Disclosure: The University of Houston has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.
