The runoff election to fill a Texas Senate seat representing much of Tarrant County is drawing national attention as Republicans and Democrats hope for wins that foreshadow November midterms.
On Jan. 31, voters weigh candidates Taylor Rehmet, a Fort Worth Democrat and mechanist union leader, and Leigh Wambsganss, a Southlake Republican and executive director of Patriot Mobile, a conservative wireless service provider.
While Republicans have poured millions into seeking the seat, the runoff is largely ceremonial. The Legislature doesn’t return to session until 2027, and candidates must immediately seek reelection in November. Political analysts believe the winner could gauge a nationwide political temperature that will affect midterm results in November.
Early voting for the runoff opens next week on Jan. 21 and runs six days.
The Senate District 9 runoff election was triggered after no candidate won more than 50% of the vote in the Nov. 4 election. In that race, Rehmet came about 3,000 votes shy of an outright win, as Wambsganss split the GOP vote with a third opponent.
The Democrat’s near-win in November is a telling indicator for Texas and the nation, said Keith Gaddie, a political professor at Texas Christian University.
Such a gain in Tarrant County, which is commonly regarded as one of the nation’s largest Republican counties, does not bode well for the GOP this November and beyond, Gaddie said.
He said Democrats hope Tarrant’s changing demographics with its fast-growth and urbanization — coupled with what they see as a fracturing Republican Party and national unrest over President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, immigration and international relations — could tip the county in their favor.
“Whoever wins will declare that it’s a bellwether, and they will declare they’ve got a mandate,” Gaddie said. “But, irrespective of who wins this runoff, if I were the Republicans, I’d be looking at what’s happened in Tarrant County, and I’d be worried.”
The Texas Senate District 9 seat has been red since 1991. It became vacant in June when former Sen. Kelly Hancock resigned to become acting state comptroller.
The winner on Jan. 31 will serve the remainder of Hancock’s term, which runs through the end of the year. Candidates have already filed for a prospective rematch in the March primaries.
What is the makeup of the Texas Senate?
The 31-member Texas Senate has 20 Republican seats and 11 Democratic seats.
Texas state senators serve 2-by-4-by-4-year terms, where senators serve one two-year term and two four-year terms each decade.
Across the state, 16 Senate seats are on the ballot in November.
Five Republican incumbents, including Hancock, have or will step down from their seats, leaving them open.
Democrats would need to gain five new seats to flip the Senate, which Republicans have controlled since 1996.
The platforms, budgets
Wambsganss describes herself as “ultra-MAGA” and touts her far-right endorsements from President Trump, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Tarrant County Judge Tim O’Hare and others. Her campaign has focused on securing the border, supporting Texas’ oil industry, defending gun rights and lowering property taxes through the homestead exemption.
Local conservative groups supporting her campaign include True Texas Project and Mercy Culture’s For Liberty and Justice political nonprofit, which has recently expanded to advance Christian Nationalist causes nationally.
Wambsganss told the Report that she conducted her fall campaign like a party primary election, as she had another GOP candidate to differentiate herself from. With the race narrowed, she said she’s focused on winning against Rehmet, who she believes to be “out of step with the conservative majority” of Senate District 9.
Addressing Tarrant County Republicans during a Jan. 8 local GOP executive committee meeting, Wambsganss emphasized the importance of her victory for the Republican Party. If Rehmet wins, Democrats will “fly” into Texas and challenge every GOP judge and politician in the state, she said.
“This election is being called the canary in the coal mine because Democrats across the nation are watching this race,” she said.
Rehmet has campaigned on fueling affordable housing initiatives, expanding workers’ rights, supporting fellow veterans and lowering property taxes for working families.
He garnered endorsements from several state Democratic senators and representatives including Rep. Chris Turner and Sen. Wendy Davis, progressive Fort Worth City Council members and Tarrant County commissioners, as well as from groups including VoteVets, Texas Young Democrats and IAM Union.
Rehmet said his campaign hasn’t changed since November. His priorities have not shifted but “have sharpened” as he’s learned how financially squeezed people are, he said.
“I’ve talked with parents who are doing everything right and still can’t catch up on groceries. Seniors who are choosing between medicine and keeping the lights on,” he said. “Young families are wondering if Texas is still a place they can build a future.”
Both candidates declined to participate in a forum with the Fort Worth Report. They both said they have not met nor interacted, and Wambsganss added that she maintains a “very full schedule of public events and block walking.”
Gaddie, the political professor, said candidates’ declining forums and debates are a sign of the times. Recent years have seen a trend of smaller, more skewed audiences attending debates, and candidates rarely directly answer the questions they are asked, he said.
“It’s all sound bite, throw-in and gotcha games,” he said. “They see their time and effort better spent raising money or on the doors.”
In the lead-up to the November election, Rehmet ran a relatively small-budget, grassroots campaign. He said he remains almost entirely funded by small, individual donations. Before November, he saw a few contributions of $10,000 from local unions.
His two GOP opponents outspent him by over a million dollars. Wambsganss received multiple donations of $300,000 to $450,000 from the Texas Senate Leadership Fund, a PAC launched by Patrick and Texans United for a Conservative Majority PAC, a committee started by Republican Texas oil tycoons Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks.
Campaign finance reports have not yet been released for fundraising conducted since the November election.
Who could win the runoff?
The runoff results will largely depend on candidates’ ability to mobilize voters, although statistically, Rehmet has the upper hand, said Gaddie, who has published studies on the science of runoff elections.
“If you get a candidate that breaks 40% and leads by 10-percentage points (in the initial election), there’s a 19 in 20 chance they’re gonna win the runoff,” he said. “Rehmet met both of these criteria — 48% of the vote, and he led by 12 points.”
The crunch point is a candidate’s ability to mobilize voters, which could prove difficult, he said. Tarrant County runoffs typically see about 20,000 fewer voters than the main election, and elections are very rarely held in January, he said.
Additionally, the runoff Election Day is on a Saturday, he noted. On one hand, many people are off from work, but weekends are also often filled with activities and commitments, he said.
Wambsganss said her campaign has an “expansive plan” to rally conservatives to the polls.
“The liberals believe they can use a low turnout election to steal this seat from the Republicans,” she said. “My focus is on turning out the conservative majority and maintaining the sort of representation this district expects in the Texas Senate.”
Rehmet said his focus is to show residents their vote can bring change, and he believes that they will show up to the polls when they see that, even in a traditionally low-turnout election.
“We’ve stayed focused on direct engagement since November because the issues facing working families didn’t take a break after Election Day,” he said.
Ultimately, Gaddie said, the election pits Rehmets’ organizing of progressive and union groups against Wambsganss’ high-budget mobilization of passionate Republican and Christian Nationalist coalitions.
If Rehmet’s strategy wins out, it could signal a change of tide in Texas that foreshadows a coming blue wave, Gaddie said.
“As Tarrant County goes, so goes Texas,” Gaddie said, quoting Steve Bannon, Trump’s former political strategist, GOP influencer and supporter of Wambsganss.
“As Texas goes,” Gaddie added, “So goes the world.”
Drew Shaw is a government accountability reporter for the Fort Worth Report. Contact him at drew.shaw@fortworthreport.org or @shawlings601.
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