A headline-grabbing new COVID-19 variant known as "Cicada" has been detected in Texas — but it hasn't caused a significant wave of infection in Austin or the U.S. yet.
Cicada, or BA.3.2, is one of multiple variants that public health experts are monitoring heading into the summer. Epidemiologists coined the "Cicada" nickname as a nod to the variant maintaining an "underground" status for several years before emerging more broadly, just as the insects do.
Right now, Cicada makes up only around 7% of COVID cases detected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in U.S. wastewater.
COVID activity also appears to be fairly low overall, in Texas and beyond. Travis County monitoring sites show low to very low levels of COVID as of March 28. An outlier is Hays County, where wastewater levels show very high viral activity.
Statewide, emergency department visits and hospitalizations from COVID are currently trending down.
But epidemiologists are always trying to forecast what variants might become dominant as travel picks up during the summer months, even looking ahead to the winter holidays when gatherings typically cause viral activity to spike.
Making those predictions can help public health experts plan the most effective vaccine recommendations; caution people about what symptoms to look out for; and prepare health systems for potential surges of infections.
Why 'Cicada' is turning heads
While the Cicada variant currently represents a relatively small share of U.S. COVID infections, there are several factors that make it of interest. It is highly mutated, and is descended from a different strain than the subvariants that have dominated U.S. infection in the last few years.
Initial studies show that our current vaccines may be less effective against Cicada, according to the CDC. Some early data shows that children may be more susceptible to the Cicada strain.
"In the laboratory setting the virus … is not as responsive to antibodies against it, which at least in theory could raise a concern about its potential to evade immunity or vaccines," said Dr. Manish Naik, chief medical officer for Austin Regional Clinic. "The good news is, most of the cases of COVID we see are still milder, meaning this variant doesn't appear to cause any more severe disease than the other variants, at least in the data that's come out so far."
Like other doctors, Naik said he will continue to monitor data that emerges about the new variant.
"Are the current vaccines effective, or do we need a new version of the vaccine to really protect against this new variant?" he said. "I think the jury is still out on that."
If there isn't a COVID surge, why do I have the sniffles?
Just because the data don't show a surge of COVID doesn't mean you can't catch it. The symptoms of COVID — including sore throat, fever and runny nose — can also overlap with other common respiratory illnesses, including flu, strep and RSV.
Dr. Nida Zakiullah, a primary care doctor with Baylor Scott & White Health in Austin, said she saw patients with all these illnesses during this winter's respiratory virus season, though it was a particularly tough flu season.
"This year, we're seeing more frequent chronic symptoms as well, so people come in with their respiratory infection and then they wind up having a cough that lasts for a lot longer," Zakiullah said. "It does seem to be a little bit more of a prolonged and more severe respiratory season than usual."
Though flu season has mostly wrapped up, Zakiullah says there are "still some stragglers," and it can be difficult to discern whether a cough and runny nose is due to allergies or a respiratory virus this time of year. But she notes that if your allergy symptoms come with a fever or body aches, that's a pretty good sign you might be sick and should get some tests from your doctor or an urgent care clinic.
As for the Cicada variant, Zakiullah is currently reacting to it as she would other COVID variants: by recommending patients to stay up to date on vaccinations, wash their hands and stay home when they feel sick.
"Based on the nature of how viruses work, this is pretty expected," she said. "All viruses tend to mutate with time, and we see new variants. We see the same thing with flu as well."
Naik added that older people with vulnerable immune systems should be especially cautious about COVID and seek treatment quickly if they think they might have it.
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