North Texas didn’t have a game over the weekend. What the Mean Green did have was hope for some help when it came to the race for a spot in the American Conference title game, or at least a clearer picture of what it will take to get there.
When the dust settled, UNT was one of a whopping five teams all with one loss in conference play.
Navy is sitting at 5-1, while UNT joined South Florida, Tulane and East Carolina in a contingent of teams sitting at 4-1.
The top two teams in the league standings at the end of the year will play for the conference title.
The Mean Green will continue their journey toward that goal on Saturday when they travel to UAB, a team has dropped from the ranks of conference title game contenders after losing four of its first five league games.
Having the Blazers on the schedule is just part of the reason UNT’s slate to end the regular season sets up well.
The Mean Green’s remaining opponents, a group that also includes Rice and Temple, have a combined record of 6-11. None are over .500. Only Tulane’s remaining opponents have a worse record at 6-12.
The list of one-loss teams in the American is set to dwindle by one this week when USF plays at Navy.
In a bit of a twist, that game is the only one remaining between the American’s one-loss teams. There’s a chance the league’s tiebreakers could come into play.
The American is like most leagues in that head-to-head matchups take precedent.
From there, it gets a whole lot more complicated, bringing in a host of factors. The most important being that teams avoid losing in the final week of the regular season. A loss to end the regular season is a disqualifier in several American tiebreaking scenarios.
The College Football Playoff rankings, computer rankings and then winning percentage, first against common conference opponents, then for the entire season come into play if head-to-head results don’t break the tie.
The conference title race will likely sort itself out over the next few weeks.
UNT is in a terrific spot as a tight race continues to unfold.
Here are a few additional items of note in this week’s edition of What We Learned.
UNT is now on the Navy bandwagon
UNT posted one of its biggest wins of the season in its last outing when it took down Navy.
The Mean Green will now become big fans of the Midshipmen this weekend.
UNT’s lone loss came against USF. The Mean Green’s chances of hosting the conference title game would improve significantly if Navy can upend the Bulls this weekend.
USF’s last two regular season games are against UAB and Rice. The Bulls will be heavily favored in both.
James Madison could pose a CFP threat
While a berth in the American title game is what UNT is chasing, the bigger goal is a spot in the 12-team CFP bracket.
The five highest rated conference champions will earn a spot.
The American has been on course place its champion in the field all season.
The concern is that the league will cannibalize itself in the final weeks of the regular season with its contenders taking turns knocking each other out of the race.
James Madison of the Sun Belt could be there to capitalize if that scenario unfolds. The Dukes are 8-1, have won seven straight games with their lone loss coming against Louisville.
ESPN has a playoff predictor with percentages listed for the favorites to make the field. USF has the best odds among teams outside the power conferences at 40% with James Madison just behind at 36%.
UNT checks in at 30%.
Those odds will change in a hurry over the next few weeks. UNT could see its odds rise — as long as it continues to take care of business.