It would be 11 years later than predicted in Back to the Future Part II, but Arlington’s mayor feels certain flying taxis are coming to the city before international soccer fans flock to North Texas for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Mayor Jim Ross announced with dramatic flair during his State of the City address in October that the city will take commercial transit to the skies by 2026. Experts told KERA News that might be a stretch, but it’s not implausible.
The air taxis would be based out of Arlington's airport, according to the city.
The most likely scenario is that Arlington has the equipment and infrastructure for special demonstrations during the World Cup, according to Ernest Huffman, aviation planning and education program manager at North Central Texas Council of Governments.
Huffman said getting flying taxis to Arlington won’t depend as much on determination or hard work by city leaders as regulations and technology.
“There’s a few things that we’re going to need in place,” Huffman said. “We’re not looking to have flying taxis as a viable transportation mode for the World Cup games. All we’re looking to do is demonstrate the technology for the World Cup games.”
Flying taxis: The 'oh, wow' factor
Legally, Huffman said he doesn’t think flying taxis will be viable for public use until 2027. At that point, he said the price and availability will seriously limit its use and prevent it from being a widely used service.
It’s not stopping Ross from pushing for the taxis by 2026, though.
“We expect it to be done in time for the World Cup,” Ross said. "Theoretically, when it's all done and we expect it to be done for the World Cup in 2026, you can be flying these air taxis right into the Entertainment District."
He wants those flying taxis to be an “oh, wow,” factor when visitors from across the globe arrive in Arlington for the nine World Cup matches the city will be hosting.
The concept of flying taxis isn’t new, even outside science fiction.
The Federal Aviation Administration told KERA News in an emailed statement that it’s been working to get regulations ready for flying taxis. The agency has already made progress, finalizing rules for flying taxi pilot and instructor qualifications. Most of them are expected to be electric vertical takeoff and landing, or eVTOL.
The administration has also been working with three companies to approve designs for eVTOL taxis. Archer Aviation and Joby are the furthest along, with certification expected soon.
But they likely won’t look like what's been depicted in Back to the Future, Star Wars or The Jetsons.
Instead of a normal-looking car that soars around the skies, they’ll probably look more like the military Osprey, a vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. The civilian flying taxis would be smaller with enough space for two to four passengers and likely have more propellers.
They’ll also be electric instead of fuel powered.
Arlington hopes to be the first city in America with these or eVTOL taxis through Overair, a company that recently moved its operations to Arlington. The company is currently working on its first eVTOL aircraft, the Butterfly.
Overair did not respond to a KERA request for interview.
Obstacles on the horizon for flying taxis
Huffman said the biggest hurdles to clear will be regulations.
Flying taxis won’t require too much special infrastructure. Much of what they would need is easy to build.
Takeoff and landing happen at one of two places: vertipods and vertiports.
Vertipods would be most commonly seen and would look similar to a helicopter pad. In Arlington, they might be in places like a parking lot at one of the stadiums, downtown or somewhere at UT Arlington’s campus. They don’t need to be flashy as long as they provide a safe designated place to land.
Vertiports will require a bit more. Huffman said they’ll be two or three stories tall and offer places to park and charge eVTOL aircraft. They’re more likely to be seen at major airports but could also be found in downtown areas with taller buildings where the elevation would be a benefit.
Huffman said neither of those will create too many issues when implementing flying taxis.
Those regulations will be the toughest hurdle for cities like Arlington.
Each company producing eVTOL aircraft will have to get certification from the FAA, and that can take years.
Price will be an obstacle when eVTOL does become available.
Jinzhu Yu, an assistant professor of civil engineering at UT Arlington, said early adopters should expect to pay high prices for trips through the skies of North Texas. He’s been working with the Council of Governments in research to predict the price of flying taxis.
“What we’re looking at in terms of passenger per mile, the range is pretty wide,” Yu said.
Right now, that range looks to be about $4 per mile to $11 per mile for passengers. Uber is expected to charge around $5.70 per mile.
“If we use that number in our model, there will be very few flying taxi trips,” Yu said. “Flying taxis are similar to other technologies where in the very beginning it’s very expensive but as technology improves or infrastructure develops, those costs are going to go down.”
In the end, he expects Uber will try to make it below $3 per mile. In the long run, eVTOL is expected to relieve traffic congestion, reduce emissions and draw tourists who might come to Arlington just to try out flying taxis.
But as these air taxis take to the skies in larger numbers, Yu said noise will become something to consider. The Butterfly, Overair's model, currently produces about 55 decibels of noise, according to the company's website. That's about the same noise created by a household refrigerator, according to Yale Environmental Health and Safety.
That could still get loud, though, especially with dozens of aircraft producing the same sound as a fridge. Yu said it's something the eVTOL industry will have to keep an eye on and might need to make improvements.
Huffman said flying taxis are eventually expected to be autonomous, too. That, he said, will likely come around 2030. Cities and regional transit authorities adopting eVTOL taxis as part of public transportation will probably be quite a bit later than that.
While Arlington works to get flying taxis in the city, Ross wants to make sure people know the city has other big plans for transit in the city. He wants to see a high-speed rail connect Arlington to Dallas and Fort Worth and has talked previously about gondolas taking passengers over the streets of the city, especially in the Entertainment District.
Got a tip? Email James Hartley at jhartley@kera.org. You can follow James on X @ByJamesHartley.
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