The fourth-quarter growth report is in for Denton ISD, and the picture is dramatic.
The same week that a number of districts are either preparing to shutter campuses or discuss closures in Fort Worth, Irving and Plano, demographer Bob Templeton, the vice president of the school district segment at Zonda Education, told Denton ISD leaders to brace for impact.
Denton ISD is red-hot on the growth heat map.
“Texas is No. 1 in housing closures,” Templeton said, referring to the number of homes selling across the U.S. “Dallas-Fort Worth is No. 1 in the state in housing closures. Denton ISD is the No. 1 school district. You guys have been second, and you’ve been third. Now you’re No. 1.”
Zonda Education, a demographics firm that projects enrollment in public school districts, gave district leaders the highlights from the last three months of 2023. Homes are springing up in the district’s attendance zones, and elementary schools along U.S. Highway 380 are seeing surging class sizes. And as of Tuesday, Denton ISD — a sprawling district that covers all or parts of 18 cities, communities and major developments — had an enrollment of more than 32,000.
Here are five things to know about the report:
1. The last two bond elections have allowed Denton ISD to accommodate the thousands of students spilling into its campuses.
Although Denton ISD has been briskly building new campuses — and replacing schools on their existing campuses — a number of schools are projected to reach capacity within five years. One example: Denton ISD opened Cheek Middle School in Prosper this year. Templeton said the campus is projected to reach capacity within four years. Growth is good. But it’s also costly for schools.
2. The fastest-growing demographic segments in the district are millennials and Gen Z.
Generation Alpha has a smaller share of the growth pie, but the generation is only seven years old. Zonda Education considers generations in 17-year blocks. And for Denton ISD, it’s the elementary schools that are booming as young families move into North Texas.
3. You aren’t imagining all the construction you’re seeing.
In elementary school attendance zones, Denton ISD has 58 housing subdivisions under construction and 31 future subdivisions on the books. “We have not seen developers slow down at all, even with the rising interest rates,” Templeton said. “[There’s] a little bit of a slowdown in sales. But it has not slowed down developers. ... New lots are coming, and we have groundwork underway on 2,300 lots that will be delivered in the next few months.”
4. It’s not just apartments and single-family homes that feel like they are springing up overnight.
While home construction booms, Zonda Education has tracked about 1,000 new manufactured homes brought into the district. That pop of activity is driven by the high cost of new and established single-family homes and high rental costs. The district’s demographers expect housing costs to soften, but with demand still climbing, North Texans might see more manufactured homes pulled onto new lots in mobile home communities.
5. The building boom is helping Denton ISD afford the growth, but voters should let their reps in Austin know if they want to reform school funding.
Denton ISD is living on a knife’s edge along with every other school district in the state, financially speaking. The last legislative session saw lawmakers gridlocked over school vouchers. Lawmakers also failed to use Texas’ rainy day fund to help schools navigate rising inflation and the end of COVID-19 emergency funds.
The result is that Denton ISD cut 10% of expenses across all campuses and shuttered its growing virtual school. Denton ISD leaders are worried the district won’t have the cash to give teachers and staff raises in the 2024-25 school year, and elected officials are already discussing the possibility of losing the district’s exemplary credit rating and planning a deficit budget.