By By J. Lyn Carl, GalleryWatch.com
Austin, TX – AUSTIN (6/10/03) - There's "lots of moving parts" to the issue of congressional redistricting, says Austin political consultant Tony Proffitt, but so far nobody seems to be able to get the parts put together to make the redistricting machine run.
So far we've got:
Rumors of hearings at a variety of locations across the state with on-again, off-again status.
The capitol rumor mill buzzing with speculation on whether there will be a special session to address the issue.
Could a redistricting bill make its way out of the House where the GOP political clout reigns?
Would lack of votes and internal politicking kill a redistricting bill in the Senate?
Would minorities get increased representation from congressional redistricting, causing a groundswell of support from Valley legislators?
Could a redistricting bill pass in time for the U.S. Justice Department to put its stamp of approval on it?
Could a redistricting bill pass in time to be viable for the 2004 election cycle?
Everyone knows how contentious the issue of congressional redistricting is in the House. It was contentious enough for more than 50 House Democrats to bust quorum during the recently completed legislative session and leave the state until the deadline for hearing the bill expired and the bill died.
But how about in the Senate? When the bill reared its head during the regular session, Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos (D-Austin) announced congressional redistricting would be DOA in the Senate. Not enough votes to bring it up, he said. It takes a two-thirds vote in the Senate for legislation to come to the floor for debate - that means only 11 nay votes could kill the bill before it ever got to the Senate and Barrientos said he had those votes.
Not all of those who might have voted against bringing up a redistricting bill were Democrats either. Speculation is that if a congressional redistricting bid were to knock at the doors of the Senate, three Democrats - Sens. Frank Madla (D-San Antonio), Eddie Lucio (D-Brownsville) and Ken Armbrister (D-Victoria) - would side with the GOP and allow the bill to be taken up. However, it is also widely accepted that two Republicans - Sens. Bill Ratliff and Jeff Wentworth - would vote against taking up the bill.
You do the math. Twelve Democrats in the Senate. Subtract three, then add two - you still have the 11 necessary to block the bill.
So what about now?
"Everything is a new ballgame," said Barrientos. "This is 2003. There are Republicans in every major state office and there is a Republican majority in the House and in the Senate."
While Barrientos said he did have "11 votes written down and signed" during session, he adds, "As you saw on some other votes, some of those 11 or 12 'flaked.' So who knows what a special session might bring?"
Throw in the fact that Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst has said he would likely continue the Senate's two-thirds vote tradition in a special session, if the Dems can put together 11 nay votes, bringing congressional redistricting up in a special session seems like a waste of time and $1.7 million.
Proffitt, former political adviser and spokesman for the late Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock, notes Dewhurst has an "inside line" on redistricting efforts. As a member of the Legislative Redistricting Board that was called on to draw the last House and Senate district lines, Proffitt says the lieutenant governor "knows what happened as to why they couldn't get it through the last time." The most recent congressional districts were drawn by a Republican federal court. But Barrientos and other Democrats are not taking anything for granted. They're not just sitting around waiting for a special session that might bring congressional redistricting back to the legislature. "We're working on some items and meeting with the Good Guys Club," he said, "and meeting with some House members."
Barrientos said the history of the issue itself is volatile. He pointed to the Republicans themselves "bottling it up in 2001," and then noted that Gov. Rick Perry has said repeatedly in the past that the issue needs to go to the courts. "He's made several statements in the past saying the courts ought to decide it," said the Austin Democrat.
"But now with (House Speaker Tom) Craddick trying to bring it up in the House and with the explosion it created over there, I can't see that there is any political upside for him (Perry) to bring it up in a special session."
When you add up all the "moving parts," the speculation and the timing, said Proffitt, "just getting ready for redistricting is an explosive issue."
The GOP contends that the voting population has shifted to Republican, he said, and that shift has not been reflected in congressional districts. "They feel the district lines should reflect GOP strength and GOP voting sentiment." The Texas congressional delegation currently includes 17 Democrats and 15 Republicans.
"It's turned into a big political tug-of-war."
And if there is a special session to address congressional redistricting? "If there is," promises Barrientos, "I'm going to spend 24 hours a day telling anyone who'll listen that it's bull----."