A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Next we turn to Ukraine. Ukrainian security officials are planning to meet this week with European leaders and U.S. representatives in Paris seeking to end Russia's war. As they hammer out positions on security guarantees and economic support, they may also come closer to deciding who will control Europe's largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia, located in Southern Ukraine. Before Russia's full-scale invasion, it powered one-fifth of Ukraine's electrical grid. It fell under Russian control in early 2022. Now, to learn more about what's at stake, let's bring on Henry Sokolski. He's the executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. That's a nonprofit nonpartisan think tank. He also served as the deputy for nonproliferation policy in the office of the secretary of defense in the George H.W. Bush administration. So what do we know right now about who's running the plant and actually the stability of its six reactors?
HENRY SOKOLSKI: Well, the plant has been plundered of a lot of important components. It's now being used as a military base by the Russians. There's heavy mining around the facility. For that reason, reliable supplies of water and electricity that are critical to the safe operation of the plant are no longer available. So the Russians claim they own it. They are trying to run it with a quarter of the staff that was originally there. It's pretty sketchy.
MARTÍNEZ: Is it still operating, though? Is it producing energy?
SOKOLSKI: All of the plants are on cold shutdown. However, they do need to have water circulating to keep the fuel from heating up and boiling over and producing a loss of coolant accident.
MARTÍNEZ: OK. Now, a recent version of the peace proposal suggested that the U.S., Russia and Ukraine would jointly operate the power plant with oversight from the International Atomic Energy Agency. That's the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog. Is that a fair proposal?
SOKOLSKI: That is aspirational. The Ukrainians don't want to deal with the Russians, and the Russians don't want to deal with the Ukrainians. The Americans don't want to deal with the sovereignty of the plant and who owns it, licenses and runs it. And so they've proposed, well, we'll just all get into the hot tub together and figure this out as we go. That probably won't work.
MARTÍNEZ: So, Henry, that goes, I think, it sounds like more than aspirational. It sounds more like pie in the sky.
SOKOLSKI: I think the idea that you have the IEA doing anything other than blessing what's going on is pretty delusional. They do not license anything. They do not operate anything. They have no record of doing it. And that's the key player that the Americans are proposing to leaven the bread of this proposal. I don't think that'll work.
MARTÍNEZ: Why does Zaporizhzhia matter strategically to each side?
SOKOLSKI: Well, first of all, the Russians want to take possession and have sovereignty over the area around it, and the Ukrainians want to demilitarize the area around it, the Russians don't. So it's literally control of the region as much as it is control of electricity in the future. It's not clear whether they can get the plant back up. You know, the Russians say they can do it in a year easily. Ukrainians say it'd take at least two years, if not more. So it's not been running for a good number of years. I don't think this is something you can turn a switch on.
MARTÍNEZ: Henry, when you look at the state of the plant and where it is, it's location in a war zone, how great is the risk of a nuclear accident?
SOKOLSKI: It's been the one leverage diplomatic military point that Putin has exercised over not only Ukraine, but Europe and NATO. They fear another Chernobyl. Now, that may be a little breathless because Chernobyl is a different design, but bottom line, it's a present threat.
MARTÍNEZ: And one more thing quickly, Henry, just a few seconds here, why should the world care about what happens to Zaporizhzhia?
SOKOLSKI: Well, you know, the world seems to be hell bent on using nuclear power to save the planet. So if this thing goes down poorly, that puts a dent in that market.
MARTÍNEZ: Henry Sokolski is the founder and executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Henry, thank you.
SOKOLSKI: Thank you.
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