An association of Texas doctors wants state lawmakers to implement more regulations and safeguards on “prediction market platforms” that pediatricians say contribute to gambling addictions.
Texas is one of the 11 states where sports betting is illegal – but the Texas Medical Association, or TMA, said the new trend of prediction markets exposes young adults “addictive” gambling behavior.
“Basically, you have a situation right now where high school seniors are legally walking around with Vegas in their pockets,” said Dr. Lindy McGee, an assistant professor at Baylor College of Medicine and the former chair of the Child and Adolescent Health Committee for TMA. “They can bet on just about anything.”
Prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, allow people to place money on the specific outcome of an event — like a soccer game, an election or who will be the top artist on a steaming platform.
“Although they technically, legally don't fall under the category of gambling, I'm going to stress that prediction markets, like they're used today, they're no different psychologically than any other type of gambling,” said McGee.
In a statement, TMA said it is calling for a minimum age of 21 years to participate in prediction markets.
The organization also outlined recommended restrictions on advertising – including marketing near schools and parks, as well as on social media. TMA also proposed banning advertising using “celebrities, cartoons, or characters from games and shows marketed toward teens and children.”
McGee said prediction markets are still too new to have data showing their effect on adolescents.
“But, we do know in general with gambling that it is very prevalent in the adolescent and young adult population that it can have devastating effects, especially a risk of suicide,” McGee said.
McGee said teenagers have a higher chance of developing gambling disorders. She said teens can have weaker impulse control and an increased drive for “pleasure seeking and risk-taking behaviors.”
“They don't really have thoughts about future consequences the way the mature adult brain will,” McGee said. “We know that when adolescents, young adults are exposed to gambling type of behaviors younger, it is more likely to develop into addiction.”
McGee said the current generation of young adults have been exposed to gambling-like behaviors through video games and are now getting “inundated” with marketing.
“This is a smoldering problem that is going to become a huge fire within the next couple of years,” she said.
In a statement to KERA, a spokesperson for Polymarket said state legislative efforts "run counter" to the established framework the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — the governing body that oversees prediction markets at the federal level — uses to regulate these platforms.
"We look forward to addressing these claims through the appropriate legal process," the spokesperson said.
KERA also reached out to Kalshi and the Coalition for Prediction Markets for comment, but did not receive a response by the time of publication.
Advocates and officials across the country have started raising concerns about the new trend. Several states have passed legislation or filed lawsuits to ban, restrict or regulate prediction markets, including Minnesota, which became the first state to ban them earlier this year. However, that ban is stalled due to a federal lawsuit filed by Kalshi and Polymarket.
Earlier this year, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick instructed the Senate State Affairs Committee to look at how the state can close “gambling loopholes” by studying the recent increase in prediction markets that circumvent state bans on gambling.
TMA is already talking with state lawmakers, according to McGee. She said she’s heard bipartisan support for the proposed age limit and ban on advertising to children.
As policymakers and advocates look to address the issue, McGee said it’s important to focus on the vendors and the companies operating the platforms rather than impose harsh punishments for the people who use the products.
“As a pediatrician and a parent, myself, I'm just so sick of the move-fast and break-things attitude of the tech industry generally when it comes to the safety and mental health of our teenagers,” she said.
Abigail Ruhman is KERA’s health reporter. Got a tip? Email Abigail at aruhman@kera.org.
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