By Debra Decker, KERA 90.1 Commentator
http://stream.publicbroadcasting.net/production/mp3/kera/local-kera-527172.mp3
Dallas, TX –
I am starting to think about fallout shelters - not because politicians are feeding us rhetoric about terrorist attacks but because I believe the rhetoric understates the threat. Last year, a survey of experts put at 20% the likelihood of a nuclear attack somewhere in the world within ten years. If you include a radiological attack, the odds get even higher. And to my mind, if you consider that the world is not fond of America right now and Texas is George Bush's home state - well...
I don't have nightmares because I believe any attack will be contained. A nuclear attack won't be a massive attempt by Russia or China to annihilate America. In the short term, it won't even be a North Korea or Iran directly lobbing a nuclear weapon at us - those countries' interests lie in ensuring self-preservation and in extorting favors. No, the real threat is from terrorists.
So how do we protect ourselves?
Two ways: Stop proliferation and don't let an attack disrupt America.
It will be hard to stop proliferation -opportunities for nuclear theft are increasing. That's because more nuclear materials are being handled worldwide. Globally, 442 nuclear power plants operate, 27 are under construction and more are coming as countries need energy to grow but worry about global warming and want a secure mix of energy sources. But the problem is not just the growing fissile material from these power plants or for that matter from the hundreds of research reactors or from nuclear applications in the medical and other fields. The problem is also in areas where the amounts of fissile material are in fact falling. As Russia and the US reduce their weapons, as nuclear power plants are de-commissioned, as spent fuel is down-blended, the nuclear material is being increasingly managed and in some cases transported. With more people involved at every turn, there are more chances for theft. So increased usage as well as disuse are inter-related - call it Nuclear String Theory.
Parts of the issue are being addressed, with more initiatives than I can recite. But one idea getting attention at an International Atomic Energy Agency meeting next month is a multinational-controlled nuclear fuel bank - so that countries don't have to manage their own fuel supplies. One area not getting enough attention, I think, is nuclear forensics; that's where you identify the original source of nuclear materials based on contaminants in it found when the material is confiscated or even after a blast. Such nuclear fingerprinting should make everyone more protective of their nuclear stocks. But all these discussions avoid the broader question of what we want our global nuclear future to be.
That should be the discussion and a long one.
In the meantime, I believe we must strengthen civil preparedness. If an attack does not disrupt, if it does not accomplish its intended terror, then it has failed. The prospect of likely failure could in itself deter a terrorist attack.
Controlling nuclear proliferation and improving civil defenses are meaningless if one considers the many ways bad things can happen. We need to work on the underlying causes of world discord - poverty, intolerance, foreign polices. But in the short term, I am doing my part for civil defense and staking out shelters. If you live in or near a big city or a likely target, you should, too.
Debra Decker is a research associate at Harvard University and at the American Association of Arts and Sciences, where she is working on nuclear proliferation issues.
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