By Maxine Shapiro, KERA 90.1 business commentator
Dallas, TX – Believe it or not, the first of many, many predictions are in for the holiday shopping season. Yes, it is just the middle of September, but the market craves prophecies especially when it comes to consumer spending. I'm Maxine Shapiro with KERA Marketplace Midday.
Guess who's coming to town this year? I'm sure most retailers felt the jolly man with the long white beard slept through last season. Either that or he was just a little stingy. Last year, holiday retail sales grew only 2.2 percent - the worst season in a decade or more depending on who's calculating the stats. But the National Retailers Federation, NRF, the world's largest retail association, projects a 5.7 percent increase from last season, bringing holiday spending to almost $214.5 billion. That would be the highest jump we've seen since 1999, when holiday sales rose 8.2 percent.
Already, analysts are disagreeing and agreeing with the projection. One thinks it's too high, another says it's right in line. Pick your bets, sir! Last year, the Federation was a little off. They were expecting sales up 4 percent from '01. But don't think they always highball the number. 2001 topped their projections.
They have every right to be more optimistic this year. As the chief economist for NRF explains, "After several strong months of retail sales growth, it seems clear that the economy is picking up momentum just in time for the holidays." But to say it's been a challenging time for retailers would be an understatement. Sure, interest rates are low, and for a while the Fed was more concerned with deflation than inflation. However, the question on the forefront of everyone's mind is, "How secure is my job or when will I or my spouse, or my lover, or my friend get a job?" Jobless recovery is an absolute contradiction in terms during the holiday season.
So, we'll have to wait and see how November and December fare. My prediction is no matter what, people will spend this holiday season. For KERA Marketplace Midday, I'm Maxine Shapiro.
Marketplace Midday Reports air on KERA 90.1 Monday - Friday at 1:04 p.m.
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