By J. Lyn Carl, GalleryWatch.com
Austin, TX – The people of Texas better build a fallout shelter."
Or so says Austin political consultant Tony Proffitt as the 78th Legislature prepares for sine die today.
Proffitt has said since the beginning of session that all the legislature has to do is pass a budget. The accomplished that chore, but the "fallout" will be felt from the Panhandle to the Valley to the Gulf Coast and to behind the Pine Curtain of East Texas.
"The over-arching theme of this legislative session is that the legislature put together a budget that on face value is larger than the current budget, but actually spends fewer state dollars than the current budget," said the former political adviser and spokesman for the late Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock. "The budget was balanced without new taxes, but by cutting services and eliminating state employees and through ordered savings in virtually every state agency."
Proffitt said the main reason the total budget figure - some $117 billion - is larger than the previous biennial budget is because federal funding increased.
So what will the "fallout" from the legislative session be, according to Proffitt?
Higher tuitions with the college and university tuition deregulation bill.
Restrictions and camps on medical malpractice and other lawsuits.
Fines for bad drivers under a new point system for offenders.
Insurance rates will still be subject to credit scoring. And it may be problematic whether anyone's insurance rates will be going down very soon.
The elderly and frail who receive home care services will see cutbacks in those services.
Fewer and fewer children will be insured under CHIP (Children's Health Insurance Program) and Medicaid.
There will be a general tightening up of services related to mental health and mental retardation.
Proffitt said the true impact of the many programs facing cuts and belt-tightening will not be known until those cuts touch individuals and individual families.
So how will the actions of the legislators play back home?
"If fiscal concerns are on the minds of the voters, they'll be happy because the budget was produced without any new taxes, although there are some new fees," said Proffitt. "The Republican leadership, which was new at the start of the session, has fulfilled its goal of 'no new taxes.' So there was clearly success there."
He said the revenue for the budget basically centered on budget cutbacks, gambling options and restructuring of certain aspects of state government.
"They threw everything they could but new taxes into the budget structure, and ended up with something that relies less on state revenues and more on federal money, including that last-minute infusion of more than $1 billion in federal funds."
The major fallout Texans could feel will be that costs for services the state will no longer bear will be shifted to local governments. "The fallout for unfunded mandates going to local governments will be something only a little bit of time will tell," said the political consultant.
Although campaign promises to fix the franchise tax loophole that could have put millions in state coffers never saw the light of day, lawmakers did give the Texas Lottery Commission the authority to participate in multistate powerball games, which could net the state up to $100 million.
The 78th Legislature will get "mixed reviews," according to Proffitt. While the legislature did not impose more tax burdens on taxpayers, "They did cut back on health and human services drastically at a time when caseloads are growing. So that burden will be shifted back to local governments. Now local governments will have to find ways to pay for that shift."
And how will the new Republican leadership be scored?
"Gov. (Rick) Perry can walk away from the session saying his campaign promises were pretty much intact," said Proffitt, noting Perry campaigned on tort reform, a prompt pay bill for physicians, no new taxes and insurance reform. All were addressed and legislation passed.
First-term GOP Speaker Tom Craddick may not fare so well on the report card.
"The House was a bumpy ride for the Speaker and for a lot of members," said Proffitt. "They got hung up on complex issues and many of those issues got pretty contentious. Then there was the quorum-breaking road trip to Oklahoma (by House Democrats) that put a real monkey wrench into a lot of things."
The one politician who will come out of the 78th Legislature smelling like a rose, said the political guru, is first-term GOP Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. "He proved to be the smoothest legislative leader of the session," said Proffitt. "He had a good working relationship with the senators, moved legislation through the Senate with almost break-neck speed, and came up with legislative options for issues from school finance to insurance to the budget. He will probably get the award for the best performance."
But the final awards, warned Proffitt, "will be handed out the next time there is an election."
"The bipartisanship that has been a tradition in the Texas Legislature vanished this year. More and more of the debate was very partisan."
Proffitt said this legislative session "will be remembered as the session that the Republicans finally achieved a majority and began a change of direction in government with a real conservative approach. You saw passage of some of their conservative agenda on social issues, from defining a fetus to a requiring a waiting period for an abortion."