By Bill Zeeble, KERA 90.1 reporter
Dallas, TX – Bill Zeeble, KERA 90.1 reporter: Some may say that in a different - only imagined- political world, race would not matter. But realistic observers know better.
Ed Rincon, president, Rincon and Associates, Hispanic (largely) research firm: Anyone who thinks we're in a color blind society is in Alice in Wonderland?
Zeeble: Ed Rincon is the president of his own, largely-Hispanic marketing and research firm Rincon and Associates.
Rincon: Race has always mattered. We just need to look at socio-economic indicators, health indicators, educational indicators. There'll continue to be clear differences by race?
Zeeble: Rincon says those differences affect voters. Ron Kirk, for example, got the majority of African-American voters in the Democratic primary; Victor Morales received the largest share of Latino votes.
Rincon: A Hispanic voter may follow a rule of, well, "I may not know anyone else, or anything about anyone, but I may use the surname as a basis to pick a candidate."
Zeeble: Political science professor Cal Jillson from Southern Methodist University expects voters will once again overwhelmingly pick the candidate of their own race in the runoff.
Cal Jillson, political science professor, SMU: Kirk will get 85 to 90 percent of the Black vote. I think Victor Morales will get two-thirds of the Hispanic votes. It's the Anglo vote that's up for grabs with Bentsen out of the race.
Zeeble: And because Bentsen endorsed Kirk on Monday, Jillson says it'll help the former Dallas Mayor. So will the endorsements Kirk has received from nearly all elected Democrats in Texas.
Jillson: The establishment endorsements that Mr. Kirk has over Mr. Morales will pull the insiders in this party primary, where mostly Democratic insiders are the ones actually showing up to vote, that that will tell for him.
Zeeble: SMU political scientist Matthew Wilson, however, is not convinced Victor Morales will suffer much from such endorsements, even from Hispanics like Henry Cisneros, who backs Kirk. That's because Morales is running more as an outsider-everyman than as a Latino. It's a campaign, says Wilson, based on class more than race.
Doctor Matthew Wilson, assistant professor, SMU Political science: His candidacy appeals to a certain blue-collar, anti-establishment, almost Jesse Ventura-like constituency. The same kind of disaffected populist constituency that fueled Ventura's run in Minnesota tends to gravitate towards Morales, whereas Kirk is seen more as an establishment figure.
Zeeble: Political observers say these identities are well known in North Texas, where the candidates live. Wilson says Morales's class-conscious campaign may even work among African Americans, many of whom are blue-collar workers. But demographer Ed Rincon says neither man is well-known outside the region. And that could be a problem April 9th.
Rincon: Political candidates are, to a degree, commodities. They also need a brand name, some kind of positioning, some kind of image that voters can grasp so they can form a decision. As it is now, not enough people vote.
Zeeble: Rincon says to get more votes, both candidates should refine their identity - their brand - then sell it to voters throughout the state. But he says neither has done that yet. Rincon adds that for voters to make an intelligent choice between the two, the candidates also need to offer more detailed position statements.
Rincon: Where they will be?between now and runoff is going to depend on their ability to articulate specifics on their platform. Right now, they're very, very vague. I think it's absolutely necessary that it changes. More and more voters are wanting more than just a name or skin color to form their decision-making.
Zeeble: Political consultant Rob Allyn though, isn't so sure there's more to these candidates than what's out there already. He doesn't buy - for example - the argument that Victor Morales lacks specifics because he has no money to pay researchers who compile position papers. Allyn says Victor Morales's brand is obvious; he's the pickup- driving schoolteacher.
Rob Allyn, political consultant: That being said, Victor Morales's problem is he's a one-trick pony, that there's not much else there, there's not much there there with Victor. You've got a pickup-driving teacher who's got an act. And that's worth 35-40% of the vote in a Democrat primary, and that's it. Victor Morales is not a candidate. He's a stunt.
Zeeble: While Allyn - a Republican - has worked for Kirk in the past, and therefore claims to know the candidate's strengths and weaknesses, he isn't working for Kirk in this campaign. Allyn sees Kirk as the charismatic, persuasive coalition builder with appeal across ethnic, business and political lines.
Allyn: I guarantee you, the Democrat that Republicans are worrying about laying up at night is Ron Kirk
Zeeble: Demographer Ed Rincon thinks maybe some Democrats in the Kirk camp should be staying awake at night thinking about Victor Morales. Rincon's convinced the Crandall school teacher is stronger than mainstream Democrats give him credit for.
Rincon: We only have to look a few years back and know where governor Bush, now President Bush, came from. He was being criticized for the same lack of politics experience, knowledge, blunders of language. History tells us perhaps we underestimated him. I really feel Victor Morales very much falls into same type of scenario.
Zeeble: As always, a winner in this runoff will come down to voter turnout. Because Ron Kirk is the mainstream Democratic choice, some professors give him the strong edge, saying party loyalists will work to get Kirk voters to the polls. Those in Kirk's camp also expect a lower Hispanic turnout because there's no other high profile Latino, like gubernatorial nominee Tony Sanchez, on the ballot. In some past elections, Hispanic turnout dropped under similar circumstances. Still, SMU's Matt Wilson is a bit more cautious.
Wilson: If Morales can get a large Hispanic turnout, he'll win easily if he can get one-third of the White vote. If it's low, as it's been in some recent elections, he's gotta get half the White vote. His challenge is, in some measure, contingent on the turnout among his own ethnic group. My guess is it'll be fairly high. That should put him over the top. He should be able to win with that.
Zeeble: Election day for the Democratic Senatorial runoff is Tuesday, April 9th. Candidate comments from a debate last night can be heard on the People's Agenda this morning at 10, and a broadcast is scheduled for next week. For KERA 90.1, I'm Bill Zeeble.