By Maxine Shapiro, KERA 90.1 commentator.
Dallas, TX – Today is the last day of the first quarter, and as the market winds down ahead of the long holiday weekend, the overall economic picture still doesn't fit into any comfortable formula. I like that. I'm Maxine Shapiro with KERA Marketplace Middays.
Analyst and economists are always looking for ways to figure things out - to explain how the current environment either reflects the past state of affairs (better known as hindsight) or more importantly, predicts future conditions. But in today's landscape, the numbers don't seem to jive.
For instance, the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index, comprised of nine common stocks of companies involved in the gold and silver mining industry, are up 33% this quarter. Now gold and silver usually rallies in inflationary times. I know we're still debating if we were ever in a recession but we surely haven't seen inflation. And still the metals rally.
The revised and final GDP - gross domestic product number, the telltale barometer for the economy - for last year's fourth quarter came out today. It was higher than expected, fueling that now-getting-boring discussion of the recession. But the Labor Department announced its weekly jobless claims and they were up for last week. Economists surveyed expected those jobless claims to be down, proving that at least one part of who-knows-if-it-ever-existed recession is still strong.
So with unemployment still high, why are we so amazingly confident? This week, both the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in higher than expected. Maybe they didn't survey one of the almost 400-thousand people that filed jobless claims last week. Or maybe they did. To credit the spirit of this country, we are an optimistic bunch. So let the analysts and economists try to figure things out. It seems the more conflicting they are, the more secure we feel. For KERA Marketplace Middays, I'm Maxine Shapiro.
Marketplace Midday Reports air on KERA 90.1 Monday - Friday at 1:04 P.M.