By Maxine Shapiro, KERA 90.1 commentator.
Dallas, TX – There seems to be a little hoopla over the fact that the Texas Workforce Commission overestimated job growth in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. I'm Maxine Shapiro with KERA Marketplace Middays.
Once all was said and done, not only wasn't there job growth, but there was an actual loss in new jobs. The Dallas Business Journal made this the cover story last Friday, quoting all kinds of angry people. Supposedly job growth sells people on the Metroplex. Don't you think these people that are being sold are also looking at a 2001 unemployment figure of 6.2% above the national average of 4.8?
In delving into this further, I decided to call the Texas Workforce Commission to get their take on this. I know it's always open season on government agencies, but recently these agencies have been very accommodating. Today was no different. Mr. Phil Arnold, information specialist for the Workforce Commission, very commonly explained how this revision happened.
Going back to January of last year, the Commission, on a monthly basis, takes a sampling from all businesses. Right now, there are about 430-thousand businesses in Texas. Let's say there are about 70-thousand in the Dallas area. They sample about 2- to 3-thousand of those businesses or about 8%. "That's all?" I said. Mr. Arnold clarified that the Commission uses the Bureau of Labor Statistics' methodology (using what I felt was too small of a number is the common practice in sampling). "So, how come you guys were so wrong? Going from a job growth to a loss is a lot."
Mr. Arnold explained that it really wasn't that big of a revision. Instead of it being up 1%, it was down 1% in Dallas. And in Fort Worth, it was only down a tenth of a percent. It's just more dramatic when you put the cities together.
I did get Mr. Arnold to admit that with such a high unemployment rate, this should have been a red flag, though he did say that it is possible to have high unemployment and job growth together. The company counts jobs and unemployment is based on residency. Funny how there's never any complaint when the actual number is better than the estimates. For KERA Marketplace Middays, I'm Maxine Shapiro.
Marketplace Midday Reports air on KERA 90.1 Monday - Friday at 1:04 P.M.