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Here are the chances of North Texas getting a tornado this winter

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NOAA
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Meteorologists warn Texans of possible severe weather and tornado warnings this winter.

Meteorologists say warm weather mixed with high humidity and a storm boundary can lead to severe weather or possibly a tornado.

The deadly tornado that hit Western Kentucky and the Midwest earlier this month was a stark reminder of the potential for severe winter weather in North Texas.

The National Weather Service’s forecast for this season saw a warm winter for the season. While it’s also a dry one, due to La Niña, severe weather or even a tornado is still within the realm of possibility given the right conditions, said Patricia Sanchez with the National Weather Service.

“You do kind of have a part of the puzzle here,” said Sanchez. “We have those very abnormal or very kind of warm days that we've been having so far.”

Sanchez points to the Dec. 26 tornado that struck Garland and Rowlett in 2015.

“That day was very abnormally warm… but also very humid,” said Sanchez. “On top of that you had pretty much a storm system boundary.”

Sanchez said the recent warm weather is just one of three ingredients that can produce severe weather. The other two being unstable, humid air and a boundary separating the air, such as a storm system.

Sanchez said meteorologists are forecasting less than average humidity, which means the air remains stable, reducing the chances for a severe storm.

But – Sanchez reminds North Texans to be mindful of conditions, especially if they’re traveling for the holidays.

“We're no strangers of severe weather,” said Sanchez. “Always kind of have that in the back of your mind of staying kind of weather aware.”

Got a tip? Email Pablo Arauz Peña at parauzpena@kera.org

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