Linda Hodges waited outside the Tarrant County Northeast Courthouse in Hurst, eyes on the doors she had just exited.
Her husband was still inside voting. Hodges, 72, had been waiting for about five minutes Thursday morning.
“He must be thinking real hard about every line,” she said. “I just zipped right through, because I knew what I was doing.”
She was voting Republican. She said abortion is a “huge issue” for her in this election, in addition to keeping the country safe from communism and socialism.
Hodges, a lifelong Christian, said her faith plays a large role in how she votes. She believes Christianity teaches what’s right and wrong, and she said it guides her to “keep babies alive and criminals down” by voting for Republican candidates.
Voting in presidential elections has always been a priority for her, Hodges said, but this year, it’s more important than ever. A lifelong Tarrant County resident, she’s seen Fort Worth politics gradually shift from red to purple. That direction is one she’s not happy to see, so she hopes to slow down the change with her vote.
“It wouldn’t be the end of the world if the election didn’t go the way I wanted it to, but I wouldn’t give up hope,” she said. “It is an important election for me because I am pro-life and individual freedom. I don’t think we can stop the world from crashing and burning, but I can try and slow it down.”
Hodges’ observations about the shifting state of Tarrant County politics reflect recent state and national election results. Historically a conservative stronghold, the margins between Democrats and Republican candidates have begun to shrink in Tarrant County, especially at the top of the ballot.
“Tarrant County is the 15th-largest county in the country, so it should get a lot of attention. And it’s the third-largest county in Texas, so it makes sense that there would be a lot of focus there,” said Mark Hand, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington. “The reason there is and should be so much focus on Tarrant County is that it’s one of the very few large counties where Republicans have held power for a long time, and that’s now very much contested.”
In 2020, Tarrant voters narrowly supported President Joe Biden over incumbent Trump, turning the county blue by just over 1,800 votes. Biden is the second Democratic presidential candidate to win the county following Lyndon B. Johnson’s victory in 1964. Former Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke also won the county in 2018, beating Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
Meanwhile, all countywide positions continue to be held by Republicans.
As Election Day approaches, voters, candidates and political experts alike are wondering: Will Tarrant swing back to red or continue trending toward blue? Is the future of Tarrant County purple?
James Riddlesperger, a political science professor at Texas Christian University, said there’s reason for Democrats to think they might be more competitive in Tarrant County than ever before.
“Certainly, the numbers over the last several election cycles show that Tarrant County is narrowing in its gap between Republicans and Democrats,” Riddlesperger said. “But, on the other hand, all things being equal, you would have to say that the Republicans have a fairly significant advantage in Tarrant County simply because of the kind of voting habits of Tarrant County over the last third of a century, where Republicans have been so firmly in charge.”
Riddlesperger said a variety of factors could influence whether Tarrant County tilts blue again at the top of the ticket this election cycle — or not.
Voting patterns can be hard to change, Riddlesperger said. And the history of Republican support in Tarrant has positioned the party’s candidates for success thanks to greater political experience, resources and favor, he added.
“Those are some of the things that are kind of stubbornly holding on in Tarrant County,” Riddlesperger said. “The only thing we know for sure is that Tarrant, like all counties, will change over time, but you can’t really predict which direction it will change.”
The political landscape looks different than it did in 2020, he noted. Four years ago, one of the top issues on voters’ minds was COVID-19, and many people were troubled by Trump’s response to the pandemic. With the current election, top issues include reproductive health, changing perceptions of the economy, and the Israel-Hamas war.
Riddlesperger said changing voter demographics could also lead to new voting patterns in Tarrant. As older voters die, young voters of newer generations replace them, he said.
“The electorate in Tarrant County isn’t the same as four years ago. We’ve had a lot of migration in Tarrant County,” Riddlesperger said. “It’s growing rapidly, so we’re going to have more voters, and some of those new voters are not going to be as steeped in the history of Tarrant County as the voters who were four years ago.”
Chloe Cagle, a 32-year-old Fort Worth resident working as a senior paralegal, said she feels optimistic that young voters will turn out in high numbers and boost the Democratic vote in Tarrant County. She and her husband, Calvin Cagle, a 33-year-old mechanical engineer, said they’re both voting for Democrats down the ballot.
Standing in line to vote at the Southside Community Center on Oct. 24, Chloe started tearing up when asked about her feelings toward the election.
“We have a daughter,” Chloe said. “The future of women in this country under Trump and (JD) Vance is terrifying. We’ve talked about moving out of Texas. It’s that serious for us.”
Calvin said he’s iffy about Democrats’ chances, as much as he prefers Dallas-area Congressman Colin Allred over Cruz. He thinks there are too many rural counties across the state that will offset his urban vote.
Still, he wants his voice heard. A Fort Worth native, he’s watched his city steadily grow more Democrat-friendly, and he’s voting to fuel the city’s purple shift.
“It shows (politicians) that their constituents are not all thinking one way,” Calvin said.
With the current election and future ones, Hand said, voters should expect political candidates to continue paying greater attention to Tarrant County as its voting trends change and stray further from red. He suspects that the presidency will be a tight race again this year.
“In a tied national race, we’re all waiting to see which way voters will break,” Hand said. “At this point, it’s really anybody’s guess whether voters will, at the end of the day, break for Harris or for Trump, and the direction that they break will probably filter down to the Allred (versus Cruz) race and also filter down the ballot to those local races.”
For races like Tarrant County sheriff, where Democrat Patrick Moses is challenging Republican incumbent Bill Waybourn, Hand said Moses must hope that Harris and Allred have done the work to sway independent, undecided and moderate Republican voters to vote Democratic this year. Those who support Democrats at the top of the ballot are likely to support the party’s candidates further down the ballot, he said.
Despite the presidential race’s impact on voter turnout and interest in national politics trickling down to local elections, many local races can expect to see a predictable outcome.
The County Commissioners race, which includes precincts 1 and 3, likely won’t be competitive because of redistricting and gerrymandering efforts. Longtime commissioners Gary Fickes, a Republican, and Roy Brooks, a Democrat, are leaving their seats open for the first time in 20 years, but political experts previously interviewed by the Report said the precincts could be difficult to flip even with the advantage of open seats.
Texas’ gerrymandering affects federal races as well, with U.S. House districts all but guaranteed to hold their historic colors. U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey, D-Fort Worth, has cruised to victory in his races to represent District 33, a claw-shaped urban district, since 2013.
Most of Fort Worth’s urban, left-leaning neighborhoods are shored in Veasey’s district. The area is surrounded by safely red, suburban districts like District 12, which has been represented by U.S. Rep. Kay Granger, R-Fort Worth, since 1997.
As Granger retires, the seat’s Democratic nominee, Trey Hunt, hopes to flip the district. He faces an uphill battle against Republican Craig Goldman, whose campaign has raised about $2.7 million to Hunt’s $24,143.
No matter the outcome of the races, Tarrant County will continue to be at the forefront of statewide and national political debate, Hand said.
“What we’re seeing in Tarrant County both previews and also illuminates what is happening within the Republican Party nationally, and where we should expect the fight within the Republican Party to be, especially if Donald Trump doesn’t get a second turn,” Hand said. “I think that this fight will break out in the open, (and) Tarrant County could be one of the flash points for that fight.”
Head to the polls
Early voting started Oct. 21 and will run through Nov. 1, with Election Day on Nov. 5. Check out the Fort Worth Report’s Election Central and 2024 voter guide for more information.
You may check to see if you’re registered to vote through the Texas Secretary of State’s website. A list of early voting polling locations is available here.
Cecilia Lenzen is a government accountability reporter for the Fort Worth Report. Contact her at cecilia.lenzen@fortworthreport.org or @bycecilialenzen.
Drew Shaw is a reporting fellow for the Fort Worth Report. Contact him at drew.shaw@fortworthreport.org or @shawlings601.
At the Fort Worth Report, news decisions are made independently of our board members and financial supporters. Read more about our editorial independence policy here.
This article first appeared on Fort Worth Report and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.