For the first time in 20 years, two seats on the Tarrant County Commissioners Court will be filled by new faces after the November election.
The seats for Precincts 1 and 3 are both open this election, as longtime commissioners Roy Brooks and Gary Fickes are not seeking reelection. Brooks has represented his precinct for 20 years and Fickes for 18.
The exit of Brooks and Fickes from the court marks the potential for a new direction in Tarrant County leadership, as all five seats on the court will have turned over since the 2022 election. Political experts tell the Report district lines could impact the results of the coming election, as redistricting — and gerrymandering — have helped Precincts 1 and 3 consistently swing in the same political direction.
Voters will decide who will replace Brooks and Fickes on Nov. 5, but political experts, leaders and candidates on both sides of the political aisle say they’re feeling varying levels of skepticism and optimism about whether the races will be competitive.
Tarrant County commissioner district lines were expected to be redrawn in 2021, but commissioners voted to keep the same districts, saying they were sufficiently population-balanced and didn’t need updating. Republicans now control the county commission by a 3-2 edge.
“You certainly would think, in a county like Tarrant County, there could be a lot of competition, right?” redistricting expert Michael Li told the Report. “But it’s hard to have competition. It’s hard to have a commission that necessarily is representative of these very diverse counties.”
What is redistricting?
Redistricting is a constitutionally mandated process of drawing lines to map the districts from which public officials get elected. The process is meant to reflect population changes and racial diversity after each decennial census. Gerrymandering helps politicians rig political maps to ensure their own reelection while ignoring voters’ preferences, according to the Campaign Legal Center.
How does redistricting impact local elections?
Li, senior counsel for the Brennan Center for Justice in New York University’s School of Law and a former Dallas-based attorney, said the goal of redistricting is for legislative bodies to look like the people they represent. In the case of Tarrant County, where Li grew up, that goal is hard to achieve because of how large the county is and how few precincts it has, he said. Four commissioners and the county judge, who is elected by all county residents, serve four-year terms.
“It’s hard to have a commission that necessarily is representative of these very diverse counties when you only have four very large districts,” Li said.
The recent history of gerrymandering has set the stage to keep races uncompetitive in Tarrant County, said Mark Hand, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington.
That history dates back to 1965 with the Voting Rights Act, which ruled that changes to state laws had to be approved by the U.S. Department of Justice — a clause that was later rescinded in 2013 with Shelby County v. Holder. In 2019, the Supreme Court ruled that courts cannot address partisan gerrymandering, meaning that courts can only review gerrymandering cases if they are racially motivated.
“County commissioners in this case have broad latitude to determine their districts,” Hand said. “In the case of Tarrant County, what is notable is that Tarrant County has historically been a Republican stronghold but is drifting left into the Democrats’ column.”
In 2020, President Joe Biden won Tarrant County over former President Donald Trump by a slight margin of 427 votes. Biden is the second Democratic presidential candidate to win the county since 1952, following Lyndon B. Johnson. Former Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke also won the county in 2018, beating Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
For races further down the ballot, such as county commissioners, it can be hard to overcome the effects of redistricting to see such changes. Precinct 1, which Brooks currently represents, has been Democrat-led for at least 55 years, and Precinct 3, currently led by Fickes, has been held by a Republican for at least 39 years.
“In most places, there aren’t term limits, and so candidates will run for office for multiple cycles, and oftentimes decades. Over that time, you build up name recognition, which can be hard to overcome,” Li said. “Races tend to be a little closer when you have unknown people, and they’re introducing themselves for the first time. But still, that only goes so far because the districts have a lean, and that’s what’s dominant.”
Democrat Roderick Miles, who is currently employed as Brooks’ executive administrator, and Republican Michael Barber, a retired Fort Worth police officer and business owner, are seeking election in Precinct 1. Matt Krause, a former state representative representing northern Tarrant County, and Democrat Laura Leeman, a business owner and political newcomer, are running for Precinct 3.
Where are precincts 1 and 3?
Precinct 1 stretches from far southwest Tarrant County through the center of Fort Worth to neighborhoods north of Arlington, encompassing Fort Worth, Everman, Forest Hill, Edgecliff Village, Crowley and Burleson.
Precinct 3 includes far northeast Tarrant County and encompasses Hurst, Colleyville, Keller, Southlake and Grapevine.
Leeman said one of the reasons she chose to run for Precinct 3 was the fact that she’d be running for an open seat. That factor, coupled with a growing county population and changing demographics, makes her optimistic that she can win over the Republican stronghold in northeast Tarrant County.
“The county has been growing exponentially, and a lot of it is in Precinct 3,” Leeman said. “I strongly believe that many people, mostly on the right, are underestimating our unique community and diverse community.”
Krause said he foresees Precinct 3 continuing to swing Republican.
“This is just more of a turn-out-your-base type election,” Krause said. “I think that you’re going to continue to see the trends we’ve seen for a long time stay true in November.”
Krause and Leeman have recently raised similar amounts of campaign money, but Krause said he’s not concerned by his opponent’s fundraising. Krause raised just over $32,000 between the beginning of July and the end of September, while Leeman raised just over $33,000. Krause’s overall fundraising advantage over Leeman remains over $100,000.
“It’s a little harder in a down-ballot race, especially way down ballot where we are … to move the needle unless you just vastly, vastly outspend your counterpart,” Krause said.
What does it take to flip a precinct?
Although Li and Hand agreed that precincts are easier to flip from Democratic to Republican, or vice versa, when the precinct seat is open, they said that doesn’t make the possibility likely. Dividing the county into more precincts — and allowing more people to run for those offices — would almost surely make precincts more competitive, Li said.
“Texas is one of those places where you would think, with how suburban it is and how diverse it is, that there would be lots of competitive seats,” Li said. “And yet it isn’t, and we know at least for Congress and state Legislature, that’s because of how lines are drawn. That might well be the case for other levels of government, although part of the problem in Tarrant County is you only have four seats.”
Historic demographic patterns have made precincts 1 and 3 uncompetitive, Brooks said. He feels confident that as he leaves his seat of 20 years, it’ll be taken up by another Democrat, Miles. Fickes did not return a request for comment.
“I don’t have any worries that Precinct 1 will flip at this point (unless) something extraordinary happens in this election cycle,” Brooks said.
Nevertheless, members of the Tarrant County Republican Party are confident they can get Barber, the Republican candidate, elected. Barber declined an interview, saying via email, “Regardless of the precinct lines, I choose to represent everyone; always have and always will!”
Miles, who defeated Kathleen Hicks in a May runoff for the Democratic nomination, did not return a request for comment. Miles previously said his goal is to “give this seat back to you, the residents, the people. It belongs to you.”
Tarrant County GOP Chair Bo French declined an interview but said via email that the party has been more engaged in this election cycle than it ever has before, in an effort to get Republicans up and down the ballot elected.
“Barber is a great candidate who is running a great campaign, and we’re working hard to help him win in a district Democrats have taken for granted for decades,” French said. “The Tarrant GOP is not taking any district or any voter for granted, and we are committed to taking our winning message of lower taxes, safe streets and border security to voters across the county.”
Crystal Gayden, Tarrant County Democratic Party chair, said her party isn’t taking any race, whether national or local, for granted. She feels optimistic that having Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket could benefit races toward the bottom of the ballot, such as Precincts 1 and 3.
“Having Harris as our nominee has definitely fueled the fire, the energy that may have died over the course of the months or weeks before she was announced,” Gayden said. “I think that has been powerful for all of our Democratic candidates, and especially for Laura Leeman.”
To capitalize on that energy, the Tarrant County Democratic Party has been focusing on educating voters on the importance of voting all the way down the ticket. Since Texas eliminated straight ticket voting in 2020, Gayden said, many voters don’t realize how impactful their ballot can be on local races, even with gerrymandering.
More redistricting could be on the horizon
Historically, redistricting happens once every 10 years, but the law does not restrict local governments to that time frame. Brooks, among other political leaders, said he has begun to hear that Tarrant County commissioners may redraw district lines next year, with an expected Republican majority leading the way.
In recent years, the only competitive commissioner race has been in southeastern Tarrant County’s Precinct 2, where Democrat Alisa Simmons defeated Republican Andy Nguyen in 2022. Nguyen, now County Judge Tim O’Hare’s chief of staff, previously held the seat but lost his last two bids in 2018 and 2022. The seat will be back on the ballot in 2026 — the year after the anticipated redistricting effort.
Hand, the UTA professor, said if redistricting occurs next year, officials will use this election’s voting patterns to guide how they draw the new districts. With that possibility looming, each voter’s ballot could carry more impact than they think, he added.
“The project that’s underway right now, which is aggressive partisan gerrymandering across the country at different levels of government, can only be done if one side — in this case, the Republicans — actually win the offices from which they can do gerrymandering,” Hand said.
Li added that potential redistricting next year would be an opportunity for residents to voice concerns about their districts. The county’s demographics have changed since the last redistricting in 2011, and if voters want their districts to reflect those changes, they should make their voices heard during the process.
As Election Day approaches, Gayden said, her party is working to combat many voters’ pessimism that their individual vote doesn’t matter.
“Gerrymandering is a process that’s controlled by the people who are in charge, and if we want to be the persons to draw the lines, then we have to be the persons in charge, and that requires us all to do the minimum,” Gayden said. “And the minimum is getting out there and voting.”
Hand voiced a similar message, for voters on both sides of the political aisle.
“There’s really no one coming to the rescue,” Hand said. “A change in energy is going to have to come from voters themselves.”
Head to the polls
Early voting started Oct. 21 and will run through Nov. 1, with Election Day on Nov. 5. The last day to register to vote was Oct. 7, and the last day to apply to vote by mail is Oct. 25.
You may check to see if you’re registered to vote through the Texas Secretary of State’s website.
Cecilia Lenzen is a government accountability reporter for the Fort Worth Report. Contact her at cecilia.lenzen@fortworthreport.org or @bycecilialenzen.
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This article first appeared on Fort Worth Report and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.