College enrollment is rising in Tarrant County. But not all schools have rebounded from COVID declines

Enrollment is up for most colleges and universities in the Tarrant County area in comparison to 2023. But at the largest institutions — Tarrant County College and University of Texas at Arlington — undergraduate enrollment in fall 2024 has not made a complete rebound from pre-COVID levels in fall 2019.

Tarrant County College headcount is down by nearly 3,750 students, or a 7% decrease since fall 2019. Total enrollment for undergraduate students at UTA fell by around 1,380 students, or a 4.5% decrease, over the same time period.

Nathan Grawe, author of “Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education,” said that since the Great Recession in 2007, enrollment at two-year colleges has been on a significant downward trend, with the pandemic further disrupting enrollment.

“Low unemployment and a strong job market also pull prospective students away from two-year attendance,” said Grawe, a professor of economics at Carleton College in Minnesota. “In addition, since 2015 we have seen significant wage compression with wages of low-income jobs rising at a faster clip.”

At many colleges and universities in Tarrant County, there was only slight growth in enrollment from fall 2023 to fall 2024, while the National Student Clearinghouse, which tracks year-to-year enrollment growth nationwide, recently released a report showing a 3% increase in undergraduate enrollment nationwide. Tarrant County College, on the other hand, had a 5% year-to-year growth.

Higher education experts are preparing nationwide for a “demographic cliff,” projected to begin in 2026, where the number of high school graduates will drop significantly because of slowed birth rates during the Great Recession between 2007-2009. Because of new residents moving to the Lone Star State and a higher number of immigrants compared to other states, Texas is not expected to see the severe decline in high school graduates.

“The country as a whole is anticipating the fallout from a nearly 17% decline in the number of births,” said Grawe, who was citing birth numbers from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “That bodes well for Texas. However, higher ed institutions in the state — particularly four-year institutions — should expect increased competition from outside schools looking to Texas to make up for declining numbers of students in their own recruiting pools.”

Higher education headlines in Tarrant County have been dominated by talk of building new campuses and expanding existing ones. As students prepared to head back to campus, August was a busy month for higher education in the county.

UTA announced plans to build a new campus, UTA West near Aledo, with an eventual enrollment of more than 10,000 students. The second building in the planned three-building downtown Texas A&M Fort Worth got a greenlight from the Texas A&M University System Board of Regents to move to the design phases. Tarleton Fort Worth opened the doors to the second building on its campus in southwest Fort Worth and welcomed its first freshman class. TCU revealed extensive details to its campus master plan, with an addition of 25 new buildings. And Texas Wesleyan continues construction on a new football stadium set to open in 2026.

“It really is a special time to be a part of this city, and higher education is at the center of that,” said Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker, at the recent grand opening ceremony of Tarleton Fort Worth’s Interprofessional Education Building. “Sometimes I wish all of you could come alongside me for — a day or two, or a week or a month — to see the many tremendous things that are happening in the city.”

Alongside rapid population growth in the Fort Worth area, the last decade has seen modest growth in students enrolled in the county’s colleges, universities and graduate institutions. In fall 2014, total enrollment throughout Tarrant County was around 102,650. That number in fall 2024 is nearly 110,000 — a 7% increase.

Tarrant County College enrollment decreases over time, without a full pandemic recovery

While Tarrant County College officials tout the six-campus college system as having seen the “biggest enrollment recovery since the pandemic,” community college headcount has not fully rebounded from fall 2019 numbers.

But the number is rising. From fall 2023 to now, enrollment has increased by 5% amid major glitches and delays with the FAFSA form, the Free Application for Federal Student Aid that determines students’ eligibility for federal financial aid.

The college system has been working on improving enrollment, retention and completion numbers, with a goal set two years ago of attracting 50,000 students and increasing completion rates, college officials said.

“Our faculty are engaged with students from day one and are the first to identify changes in attendance or behavior which allows for quick intervention and support,” said Tara Firmin, director of strategic support for Tarrant County College. “A student will have a single career adviser throughout the course of their study, whether for transfer or for the workforce, building a relationship to support progress and success.”

Of the over 47,000 students at TCC this fall, 12,500 are dual-enrolled students who are taking college classes while in high school. Over the past 10 years, the student headcount has fallen from 50,773 in fall 2014 to 47,351 this fall — a nearly 7% decrease.

UTA grows enrollment by nearly 20% in 10 years, with major gains in graduate enrollment

Over the past 10 years, total enrollment at UTA has gone up by 19%, spurred in part by a nearly 26% spike in graduate enrollment. Over the last year, from fall 2023 to fall 2024, graduate enrollment has gone up by 7.5%.

Total enrollment at UTA does not meet pre-COVID levels in fall 2019. Enrollment went down by nearly 3% over the past five years. The undergraduate enrollment, which also includes post-baccalaureate students, took a bigger hit of 4.5%.

In fall 2024, undergraduate enrollment is 29,271. In fall 2019, it was 30,652, with around 1,380 more undergraduates.

From fall 2023 to fall 2024, UTA officials note, enrollment at the College of Nursing and Health Innovation and the College of Science increased by more than 5.5% each.

TCU enrollment makes massive gains in the past 10 years, including after pandemic

In fall 2014, there were around 10,000 total students at TCU. By fall 2024, that number had pressed forward to nearly 13,000 — a 29% increase. Both graduate and undergraduate enrollment is up at the university, with a 35% and 26% increase, respectively.

Enrollment growth at TCU did not retreat after the pandemic. Enrollment numbers — both graduate and undergraduate — continued to climb in the years post-pandemic. From fall 2019 to fall 2024, total enrollment shot up by 17%, while graduate enrollment increased by 22%.

“TCU remains a sought-after university with enrollment swelling since the pandemic,” said Heath Einstein, vice provost for enrollment management at TCU. “Growth areas for the university include natural resources, health sciences, data science and analytics, replete with experiential opportunities and all centered with a liberal arts core to ensure our graduates are agile in the workforce.”

In fall 2019, TCU welcomed its first class of 60 first-year students to its Burnett School of Medicine. By 2023, with students in all four years of the school, the medical school’s enrollment grew to 240. The university opened its new medical school campus this year.

TCU notes that the two undergraduate programs with the largest enrollment increases between 2023-2024 were the Neeley School of Business with a 6.3% increase and the College of Science and Engineering with a 2.4% increase.

Texas Wesleyan University enrollment decreases by 3% over past 10 years

Texas Wesleyan — which uses the tagline “Smaller. Smarter.” on campus signs and branding — enrollment has hovered around 2,600 students. Enrollment for fall 2024 was 2,529, a decrease of nearly 140 students when compared to fall 2023 and a decrease of nearly 80 students from fall 2014. Undergraduate enrollment from fall 2023 to fall 2024 went down by 7%.

But Texas Wesleyan noted in its press release that enrollment was on the rise. The university singled out the number of degree-seeking undergraduates, where there was

nearly a 4.5% increase from fall 2023 to fall 2024 and a nearly 25% increase from fall 2020, the first full semester of the pandemic, to fall 2024.

Total enrollment at the east Fort Worth university has not rebounded from pre-pandemic levels in fall 2019. There is still a 3% decrease, with graduate enrollment taking a bigger hit with a 14% decrease over the past five years.

As presence in Fort Worth expands, Tarleton Fort Worth’s enrollment grows significantly

Tarleton State University has had a presence in Fort Worth for more than 45 years. When the university opened its Fort Worth campus off Chisholm Trail Parkway in fall 2019, the total enrollment at the Fort Worth campus was 1,912. Since opening, enrollment has grown to 2,524, a 32% increase during that time despite typical university enrollment declines because of the pandemic.

“From the start, our goal was to elevate the profile of the institution by telling Tarleton State’s story more broadly,” said Tarleton State University President James Hurley, who leads the main campus in Stephenville, which has had a more than 35% enrollment growth since fall 2019. The university’s enrollment numbers include the Stephenville, Fort Worth, Waco and Bryan campuses. “It was key to build relationships with school districts and college partners so that we could expand access to high-quality education for all.”

Also significant during that time was a 72% increase in graduate enrollment. Growth over the past decade, from 2014 to 2024, has shot up by 75%.

Enrollment holds steady at the Health Science Center, with a 5% growth since the pandemic

Enrollment at the University of North Texas Health Science Center at Fort Worth has fluctuated in recent years by around 100 students. From fall 2019 to fall 2024, enrollment grew by 113 students, or a 5% increase.

“Since summer 2020, we’ve introduced 14 new programs to address critical health workforce needs in the region and meet growing industry demands,” said Charles Taylor, Health Science Center provost. “Our mission is to create solutions for a healthier community, and these new programs bring us closer to that goal while attracting students committed to improving the lives of others."

The school has introduced several new programs since the summer of 2020, including a bachelor’s in biomedical sciences, a College of Nursing and a hybrid doctoral degree in pharmacy.

Master’s programs at Texas A&M School of Law grow dramatically, while law degree enrollment decreases this year

Texas A&M University School of Law has a Cinderella story of rising in the rankings, from 46th to 29th in the nation between 2023 and 2024. Part of the growth could be through more selective enrollment. From fall 2023 to fall 2024, enrollment in the JD program decreased by nearly 30 students that translates to a nearly 6% decline.

Enrollment in the law school took a massive hit from fall 2014 to fall 2024, with a 36% decline. Fall 2014 was the second year of the Texas A&M School of Law after the university system purchased the campus from Texas Wesleyan. Over the years, the law school has made intentional efforts to recruit leading scholars and faculty.

The school, on the other hand, is increasing its master’s degree offerings, growing from no programs in fall 2014 to 1,083 students enrolled in fall 2024. Enrollment rose by 30% between fall 2023 and fall 2024. With the growth of the master’s programs, the law school is now the largest provider of graduate-level legal education to nonlawyer professionals in the nation, according to the law school.

Shomial Ahmad is a higher education reporter for the Fort Worth Report, in partnership with Open Campus. Contact her at shomial.ahmad@fortworthreport.org.

At the Fort Worth Report, news decisions are made independently of our board members and financial supporters. Read more about our editorial independence policy here.

The Texas Tribune partners with Open Campus on higher education coverage.

This article first appeared on Fort Worth Report and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.